During the Asian session, USD/JPY remains confined to a 148.65–146.33 trading range, with price action testing the upper boundary as the US dollar strengthens on renewed optimism following the landmark US-EU trade agreement. The deal, brokered by President Donald Trump, includes an additional $600 billion in investments into the US economy, maintains a 15% tariff on EU goods (including autos), and provides US exporters greater access to European markets. These developments have put significant pressure on the euro and, by extension, other major currencies such as the Japanese yen.

Japan’s Weak Inflation Data Caps Yen Strength

In Tokyo, July’s core consumer price index eased from 3.1% to 2.9%, missing forecasts and underscoring the Bank of Japan’s reluctance to tighten monetary policy. Nationwide, June’s core CPI fell to 3.3% from 3.7%, in line with market expectations. These soft inflation figures limit prospects for yen appreciation and are likely to keep the BOJ’s policy rate anchored at 0.50% following its upcoming meeting on Thursday.

Key US Data and Technical Setups

Later today, investors will be watching the US JOLTS job openings report and Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for July. Any upside surprise in these data could fuel further dollar gains and potentially trigger a breakout in USD/JPY.


USD/JPY remains within tight trading rangeUSD/JPY remains within tight trading range

Support and Resistance Levels

  • Resistance: 148.65, 151.18, 154.80
  • Support: 146.33, 142.50, 140.25

The long-term trend remains bearish, with price oscillating within the 148.65–146.33 corridor. A clear break above resistance would shift the bias bullish toward 151.18, while a breakdown below 146.33 could see further downside toward 142.50.

The medium-term trend, however, is upward; last week, USD/JPY rebounded from the 145.88–145.56 support zone and rallied to 147.52. A move through the July high at 149.18 would set up a potential run toward the 153.59–152.89 zone.

Trade Scenarios and Technical Outlook

Short positions: Enter below 148.65 with a target of 146.33 and a stop-loss at 149.31. Timeframe: 9–12 days.
Long positions: Enter above 149.31 targeting 151.18, with a stop-loss at 148.41.

Weekly Scenario:
SELL LIMIT Entry: 148.65 | Take Profit: 146.33 | Stop Loss: 149.31
Key Levels: 140.25, 142.50, 146.33, 148.65, 151.18, 154.80

Alternative:
BUY STOP Entry: 149.35 | Take Profit: 151.18 | Stop Loss: 148.41
Key Levels: 140.25, 142.50, 146.33, 148.65, 151.18, 154.80