Forex Market Review: Dollar Firms, German Ifo Rises
United States of America. The US dollar is strengthening against the pound and the yen, while showing mixed performance against the euro.
Markets
22
August
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By Sagar Dua - 265
WTI Crude Oil prices are correcting but maintain strong potential to test the resistance area at 64.45–65.62 (middle Bollinger Band line, Murray level [5/8]) while holding near 63.53.
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By Sagar Dua
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AUD/USD is testing the 0.6420 support level after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.00% and ahead of a similar move expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia on September 30. The RBNZ explained the decision by inflation holding near the upper end of the 1.0–3.0% target range and a slowdown in Q2 economic recovery. A week earlier, the RBA also lowered its borrowing cost from 3.85% to 3.60%. Against this backdrop, the pair may reach the support zone at 0.6420–0.6370.
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By Sagar Dua
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The Dow Jones Index is correcting higher at 44,794.0 ahead of today’s speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (16:00 GMT+2). Investors are looking for comments on monetary policy and the likelihood of a rate cut in September. According to CME FedWatch Tool, one week ago 93% of market participants expected a dovish shift, while now that number has declined to 73%.
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By Sagar Dua
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During the Asian session, USD/CAD is correcting at 1.3912 as the Canadian dollar shows neutral dynamics amid macroeconomic data releases.
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The USD/JPY pair trades at 148.74, supported by the strength of the U.S. dollar and under pressure from Japan’s macroeconomic statistics.
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By Sagar Dua
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EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8647. The euro remains relatively stable and has resumed an upward trend after forming a local low, supported by resilience in the EU economy and accelerating inflation in the UK.
21
August
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By Sagar Dua
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Volkswagen AG stock is trading around 103.00. Investors remain cautious as U.S. import tariffs of 15% on European vehicles weigh heavily on earnings, up sharply from the previous 2.5%. While lower than the proposed 25%, the measure still hits a core revenue stream for German automakers. President Donald Trump has also threatened further sanctions if the EU delays energy and defense purchases from the U.S.
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GBP/USD has been grinding lower this week and now trades near 1.3428 (Murray [4/8]). Pressure on sterling followed Wednesday’s July CPI: headline rose from 3.6% to 3.8% y/y and core from 3.7% to 3.8%, denting hopes for another Bank of England rate cut—especially after last month’s easing scraped through by a single vote. Markets had leaned toward a December trim; now odds of no change this year are put near 57%.
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By Sagar Dua
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During the Asian session, EUR/USD hovered around 1.1632 after Wednesday’s Eurozone inflation update. Headline CPI eased from 0.3% to 0.0% m/m and stayed at 2.0% y/y for a second straight month, down from 2.6% a year earlier—evidence of stable price dynamics. Core CPI slipped from 0.4% to -0.2% m/m and held near 2.3% y/y.
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By Sagar Dua
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WTI crude oil is climbing toward 64.00, supported by signs of stronger U.S. demand. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell sharply by –6.014 million barrels versus the previous build of 3.036 million and a forecast decline of only –0.800 million. Gasoline stocks also decreased by 2.7 million barrels, against expectations of a 0.915 million draw, highlighting resilient fuel consumption during the peak summer driving season.
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By Sagar Dua
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U.S. stock indices continue their corrective move, with the NQ 100 trading around 23255.0. This week, investor sentiment is shaped by earnings reports from key consumer goods companies.
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By Sagar Dua
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During the Asian session, NZD/USD is trading around 0.5820, consolidating lower as the U.S. dollar strengthens and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moves ahead with another rate cut, lowering the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%.
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