Investors closely watch Germany’s June inflation figures: as expected, annual CPI held steady at 2.0%, while the monthly reading was flat, though the harmonized index edged up 0.1%. This confirms the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s policy in containing price growth. In the US, weekly jobless claims are due at 14:30 (GMT+2), forecasted to rise slightly to 235K. The focus remains on deteriorating global trade prospects, as the White House, led by President Trump, maintains a hawkish stance, threatening further tariff hikes for countries that fail to finalize deals by August 1. Relative consensus has been reached only with the UK, China, and Vietnam, while several other nations are in late-stage talks. The EU still hopes for an imminent trade deal but warns of a possible confrontation—Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck has called for fair solutions, noting that punitive tariffs (initially proposed at 50%) would harm both economies.
GBP/USD
The British pound is testing resistance at 1.3610 following the release of Bank of England and FOMC meeting minutes. The Fed minutes reveal growing disagreement over how tariff policy could influence US inflation and growth. Some FOMC members expect a one-off jump in prices, while others warn of deeper changes to inflation dynamics. The latest Fed forecast points to at least two rate adjustments before the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the Bank of England remains confident that most UK businesses will adapt to any further global disruptions, even as the UK was the first to secure a US trade deal. On Friday, GDP and industrial output data are due; analysts expect a slight monthly GDP gain (+0.1%) after a –0.3% prior reading.
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar trades sideways near 0.6000 in Asian hours, after the RBNZ held its rate at 3.25% (19 of 27 economists forecast this outcome). Since August, the regulator has cut rates by 225 basis points. With inflation at 2.5% and heightened global risk, officials have taken a cautious stance. The Monetary Policy Committee reaffirmed its view that the index could test the top of the 1–3% range in Q2/Q3, and sees upside risks if global trade shocks escalate. President Trump’s extension of the mutual tariff moratorium to August 1—plus plans for new 10% tariffs on BRICS states—remains a key risk for the USD and commodity currencies, as it threatens to disrupt the dollar’s global reserve status. The latest forex analytics from leading platforms point to continued uncertainty until macroeconomic signals clarify.
USD/JPY
The US dollar slipped modestly against the yen, holding near 146.27. The overall macro backdrop is little changed, but tariff threats loom large: the new 25% duty on Japanese and South Korean goods comes into force August 1, with possible adjustments for any "mirror" responses. These new measures pose a significant threat to Japan’s export-reliant economy, particularly its industrial sector. Recent Japanese PPI data showed annual inflation slowing to 2.9% (from 3.3%), fully in line with forex forecasts from top international analysts.
XAU/USD
Gold prices saw a slight rebound, testing 3320.0 as traders analyzed President Trump’s latest announcements on tariffs. The White House extended the deadline for higher tariffs from July 9 to August 1, citing insufficient time for deal finalization. Official notices detailing tariff rates (20–30%) have already been sent to Algeria, Brunei, Iraq, Libya, Moldova, and the Philippines; similar letters were confirmed by South Korea and Japan. Some top-tier forex analytics providers remain skeptical that August 1 is the real final deadline, as Trump may prefer to avoid an outright trade war. Meanwhile, robust US jobs data continues to support the dollar: NFP surprised to the upside (147K vs. 110K expected), while unemployment ticked down to 4.1% and wage growth slowed to 0.2% m/m, all pointing to stable Fed policy in July.
