The situation is compounded by rising yields on Japanese government bonds. At the most recent five-year bond auction, yields climbed to 0.989% (up from 0.982%), signaling weaker demand and adding pressure to the yen. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (USDX) hovers near annual lows at 97.20, reflecting a neutral market reaction to the White House’s latest tariff announcements—including a headline 50.9% tariff on copper, which is expected to be phased in slowly, softening its immediate market impact. Similarly, new 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals are likely to be introduced over a longer horizon, limiting near-term effects.
Analysts note that the extension of negotiation deadlines may actually signal a weaker US bargaining position. Some expect Washington could walk back certain threats, using them more as leverage in negotiations than as firm policy commitments.
Forecast USD/JPY: Resistance in Focus
On the daily chart, USD/JPY continues to correct within a broader ascending channel, aiming for resistance between 151.00 and 144.00. Technical indicators remain moderately bullish: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are positioned just above the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator is generating corrective bars near the zero level.
- Resistance Levels: 148.00, 151.00
- Support Levels: 146.00, 143.40
Trading Scenarios
- Main Scenario (Buy Stop): Consider long positions if the price breaks and holds above 148.00, targeting 151.00. Place stop-loss at 146.00. Holding period: at least 7 days.
- Alternative Scenario (Sell Stop): Consider short positions if the price drops and consolidates below 146.00, targeting 143.40. Place stop-loss at 148.00.
Key Levels:
143.40, 146.00, 148.00, 151.00
