The context is clear: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF has amassed roughly $58B, underscoring how regulated wrappers can unlock demand. An in-house Ripple ETF could plausibly channel fresh billions into XRP and tighten spreads—yet the asset manager appears comfortable observing the market first, letting competitors gauge real demand, liquidity quality, and regulatory tone before entering.
Prediction markets still lean bullish on approvals: odds for a U.S. XRP spot ETF in 2025 hover near 76%, while a Solana spot ETF is priced around 99%. Even without BlackRock, multiple issuers—Grayscale, ProShares, WisdomTree, Bitwise and 21Shares—have XRP ETF applications in play. One large-bank (Bloomberg) estimate projects up to $8B of net inflows in the first 12 months post-approval, a scale that could materially deepen liquidity and improve tracking.
Market check: following yesterday’s surge, XRP is easing slightly; at the time of writing it trades near $3.33, roughly +14% week over week. The pattern fits a familiar script—anticipation of ETF news lifting price, then consolidation when timelines look less immediate.
Bottom line: BlackRock’s “not now” on a BlackRock XRP ETF reins in near-term expectations, but the wider Ripple ETF story remains alive via rival filings. With elevated SEC approval odds and credible inflow projections, the next catalysts are straightforward: regulator decisions, fee competition among issuers, and early volume once any XRP spot ETF finally lists.