ETH/USD Outlook: Bears Hold Control Below 3,540

Last week, quotes left the downward channel, breaking through its lower boundary and reaching July lows in the 2620.00 area. At the moment, the price has recovered part of its losses; however, the overall bearish trend remains in place, which is confirmed by the downward turn of the Bollinger Bands and stabilization of the MACD histogram in negative territory. The probability of a trend reversal may arise if the price breaks through the resistance zone of 3437.50–3540.00 (Murray level [3/8], 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). In this case, the move may continue toward 4062.50 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, Murray level [5/8]), 4687.50 (Murray level [7/8]), and 5000.00 (Murray level [8/8]). The key support area for the bears remains 2812.50–2720.00 (Murray level [1/8], 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), and a firm consolidation below it would open the way for further decline toward 2187.50 (Murray level [–1/8]) and 1875.00 (Murray level [–2/8]).

It should also be noted that on the weekly chart, quotes have reached the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, which are starting to move sideways. This does not rule out a corrective rebound; however, a continuation of the decline still appears to be the more likely scenario.

Support and resistance levels

Resistance levels: 3540.00, 4062.50, 4687.50, 5000.00.

Support levels: 2720.00, 2187.50, 1875.00.

ETH trading scenarios and forecast

Short positions should be opened below 2720.00 with targets at 2187.50 and 1875.00, and a stop loss at 3100.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be opened above 3540.00 with targets at 4062.50, 4687.50, and 5000.00, and a stop loss at 3240.00.