BTC/USD forecast: pressure remains despite rebound

The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure from a number of negative factors. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its current policy settings unchanged at the December meeting is still high, and labor market data confirms this view. Although the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, this was offset by a sharp increase in employment of 119.0K, versus a forecast of 53.0K. At the same time, the services sector PMI rose to 55.0 from 54.8, while the manufacturing index came in at 51.9 compared to 52.5 previously, and the composite index increased from 54.6 to 54.8. Inflation in the US remains well above the Fed’s target, limiting the possibility of interest rate cuts in the near term.

The prospect of delaying the next phase of monetary policy easing continues to strengthen the US dollar against alternative assets. Another source of downward pressure is the shift in overall investor sentiment. Toward the end of the year, market participants tend to focus more on capital preservation, which reduces demand for tokens and limits liquidity in the market.

Overall sentiment in the crypto market is still pessimistic: the Fear and Greed Index has risen to 19 but remains deep in the “extreme fear” zone. The overall trend of outflows from exchange-traded funds also continues: last week, net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $1.216 billion. In addition, according to data from the Deribit exchange, the most popular option at the moment is a BTC put at the 80,000.00 level, with open interest exceeding $2.0 billion. This indicates that investors are expecting further downside in the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

Support and resistance levels

The instrument is attempting to break out of the descending channel, having moved through its lower boundary, and is now trading around 87,500.00 (Murray level [2/8]). From here, it could resume its decline toward 75,000.00 (Murray level [0/8]) and 68,750.00 (Murray level [–1/8]). The key resistance area for bulls is seen at 95,900.00–93,750.00 (Murray level [3/8], 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, middle line of the Bollinger Bands). A sustained breakout above this zone would open the way for a new growth wave toward 106,250.00 (Murray level [5/8], 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 112,500.00 (Murray level [6/8], 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), although this scenario currently appears less likely.

Technical indicators continue to point to a prevailing bearish trend: the Bollinger Bands are directed downward, the MACD is expanding in the negative zone, and the Stochastic has turned up from oversold levels. This does not rule out a corrective rebound, but its potential seems limited.

Resistance levels: 95,900.00, 106,250.00, 112,500.00.

Support levels: 75,000.00, 68,750.00.

Trading scenarios and BTC/USD forecast

Short positions can be considered below the 85,900.00 level, with targets at 75,000.00 and 68,750.00, and a stop-loss at 93,700.00. Estimated holding period: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be opened above the 95,900.00 level, with targets at 106,250.00 and 112,500.00, and a stop-loss at 90,400.00.