Trend Overview
The Layer-1 Tron network has been grinding higher for months. Since early July, TRX is up about 26%. The chart has been printing higher lows and higher highs for weeks, confirming a steady uptrend.
TRX has been in a confirmed uptrend since reclaiming resistance at $0.297. It narrowly missed the broader “Golden Pocket” at $0.354, and at $0.346 today the token remains within striking distance of the July 29 yearly high.
Bullish headlines help the case: founder Justin Sun aims to bring Tron public via a merger with SRM Entertainment (NASDAQ) and is planning a Tron Treasury. Fresh support also comes from the newly signed stablecoin law by Donald Trump. Alongside Ethereum, Tron remains a primary rail for stablecoin issuers like Tether to inject new liquidity into crypto. The total stablecoin market cap has been rising for weeks and is now at an all-time high around $271B.
Near term, the horizontal resistance band at $0.354–$0.362 is in focus. If TRX pauses, the EMA9 (green) should offer first support; below that, $0.334 is the next horizontal shelf.
Chart basis: TRX/USD on Bitfinex; candlesticks with highlighted support/resistance zones, trendlines and multiple moving averages.
Bullish Targets for the Coming Months
Targets: $0.354/0.362, $0.396, $0.431/0.450, $0.518
As long as TRX holds above the EMA9, a new yearly high looks like a matter of time. A break above the July 29 high at $0.351 brings the “blue” resistance zone (derived from the higher-timeframe Golden Pocket at $0.354–$0.362) into play as the next upside target.
Clearing that area in the coming weeks would likely prompt some profit-taking, but sustained strength above the EMA9—and especially north of the EMA20 (red)—keeps $0.396 in view (the 78.6% Fib of the broader move). If bulls can consolidate above ~$0.36, expect attempts at the red resistance band around the $0.431–$0.450 all-time-high region. That would mirror Ethereum’s recent push toward its own prior peak.
Should market conditions stay supportive and buyers drive price toward the December 2024 highs, the next major target comes into range. With a market-wide altcoin rally, even a breakout to a new ATH near $0.518 (the 127% Fib extension) is conceivable.
Bearish Scenario and Supports
Supports: $0.334, $0.326/0.319, $0.305, $0.297/0.292, $0.277/0.270, $0.259
Bears haven’t gained traction. Since TRX decisively cleared the orange resistance at the 50% Fib near $0.324, price has marched higher and the RSI sits overbought on daily and weekly timeframes, with a mild bearish divergence on the daily.
To trigger a meaningful pullback, sellers need to cap price in the blue resistance area (Golden Pocket). The first warning for a deeper correction would be a sustained loss of the EMA9 (≈$0.339). A clean break of $0.334 would open a retest of the EMA20, which has repeatedly acted as strong support since early July. A dynamic break there would likely see follow-through into the orange zone near the Supertrend, with the monthly low at $0.319 at the lower edge.
Bulls are likely to defend $0.319. Losing it would darken the picture and activate the EMA50 (orange) as a target. If the broader crypto market cools, a retest of ~$0.306 is plausible; a daily close below that increases odds of revisiting the June high around $0.296. Continued weakness could bring the EMA200 (blue) in the turquoise support band into play; in an adverse spike, $0.259—a repeatedly relevant level this year—marks the maximum downside objective on this roadmap.
Indicator Check
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RSI (4h): Recovering from neutral, room for further upside.
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RSI (Daily ~73): Slightly overbought with a mild bearish divergence, but still has headroom.
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RSI (Weekly ~76): Overbought; historically has stretched to ~88, leaving medium-term room.
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RSI (Monthly ~86): Clearly overbought and at an all-time high. For context, Ethereum’s monthly RSI historically peaked around 88–90. Long-term upside looks more limited when viewed through this lens.
Editorial note: The price levels and estimates presented here are the author’s analysis, not investment advice.