BTC/USD dropped 1.3% in the past 24 hours to $113,426, dipping as low as $112,640. ETH/USD fell 1.4% to $4,182. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sank to 44 points, the lowest since June 22.

fear and greed index
Source: Alternative

Profit-Taking and Monetary Policy Outlook

Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, pointed to profit-taking and leveraged position liquidations after Bitcoin’s new all-time high earlier this month. He said traders are waiting for clarity on monetary policy, with $4,200 being a key level for Ethereum. Holding it could attract buyers, while a break may drag ETH to $3,900.

Markets are focused on the July FOMC minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 20 and 22. Peter Chang of Presto Research called Powell’s remarks the most important near-term event. He noted markets already expect a rate cut in September. Hawkish comments could trigger a sharp correction, while dovish signals may fuel further growth.

Other Pressures

Additional selling pressure came from news that the SEC is probing Alt5 Sigma’s $1.5B deal with World Liberty Financial, tied to President Trump. Market sentiment also weakened after the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%. On top of that, new U.S. tariffs of 50% on 407 steel and aluminum goods raised concerns about supply chain disruptions and higher consumer prices. UBS lifted its gold forecast to $3,700 by September 2026, citing expectations of a weaker dollar and slower economic growth.

Derivatives data points to rising hedging demand. The 30-day Bitcoin options delta skew climbed to 12%, the highest in four months, showing elevated caution among traders.

 

laevitas
Source: laevitas.ch

Expected Pullback

CryptoQuant analyst CQ Ben noted that Bitcoin’s weakness is in line with past bull market cycles. Based on halving patterns, he expects a rebound could take place in late September or early October, roughly 510 days after the latest halving. Similar corrections in earlier cycles lasted around 2–4 weeks.

CryptoQuant analyst CQ Ben noted
Source: CryptoQuant. 

Ethereum Under Pressure

Staking withdrawals are adding to supply: 905,767 ETH are queued for exit against demand of 238,773 ETH. The queue period is 15 days before funds can be released to the market. Xu Han of HashKey Capital pointed to profit-taking and the unwinding of leveraged bets on Aave as the main reasons. Developer Preston Van Loon stressed that the withdrawal mechanism helps maintain network stability during periods of stress.

On-chain activity has also weakened. Active addresses dropped 28% since July 30, from 841,000 to 600,000, while new addresses fell 28% to 138,000. Arthur Azizov of B2 Ventures expects ETH to trade in a consolidation range of $3,900–$4,400 until the Fed’s policy direction and tech stock performance become clearer. Despite $4B in upcoming unlocks, Han believes institutional ETF inflows and treasury demand can absorb the additional supply.