• Stronger-than-expected results could boost risk assets like Bitcoin by weakening the U.S. dollar index (DXY).

  • If the figures meet or miss forecasts, it would signal weaker consumer demand. Combined with a fragile labor market and rising consumer prices, this could weigh on domestic demand.

Low retail sales already pressured both U.S. financial markets and the crypto sector in Q1 2025.

Federal Reserve Rate Decision — Wednesday, September 17, 2025

At 20:00 CET, the Fed will announce its sixth interest rate decision of 2025. Despite recent inflation increases, the Fed has emphasized its focus on labor market weakness.

  • 96% of market participants now expect a 25-basis-point cut to 4.25%.

  • Around 4% anticipate a deeper cut of 50 basis points to 4.00%.

Markets are pricing in Jerome Powell’s dovish shift signaled at Jackson Hole. Some analysts expect as many as three full rate cuts by year-end.

Source:

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

The Dot Plot, showing FOMC members’ projections for future rates, will be closely watched. Any changes since July could reveal shifting views on inflation, growth, and employment.

Attention will also be on Powell’s press conference at 20:30 CET.

  • If Powell confirms a dovish stance, growth stocks and crypto could rally.

  • A more hawkish tone could trigger sell-offs.

Volatility in both equities and crypto is expected to spike during the press conference.

U.S. Jobless Claims — Thursday, September 18, 2025

At 14:30 CET, weekly jobless claims will be published. The last reading came in at 263,000 — the highest since 2021 and well above the forecast of 235,000. Analysts now expect 245,000 new claims.

  • If claims meet or exceed expectations, it would reinforce concerns over a weakening labor market and heighten stagflation risks.

  • A lower-than-expected figure could support equities, as seen in July.