According to Bitcoin-focused market analyst Axel Adler Jr., the probability of BTC reaching a new all-time high within the next two weeks stands at 70%. The current record is $124,128, leaving Bitcoin just 5.2% below that mark.
BTC futures are trading at a premium to spot, with the basis consistently positive and the 7-day above the 30-day, indicating a bullish regime. Overheat/divergence signals appeared ahead of the FOMC, a short-term overheating (basis rising on light volume) which suggests the move… pic.twitter.com/J7hMf3Xb2u
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 18, 2025
The analyst points to futures trading above spot prices as a bullish indicator. “If we see a series of green confirmation signals in the coming days, this would suggest new long positions and significantly raise the likelihood of a breakout,” he said.
Additional support comes from Short-Term Holder MVRV-Z scores, which remain close to zero for both the 155- and 365-day cohorts. This indicates a balanced market without signs of overheating or excessive selling pressure.
STH MVRV Z-Scores (155D & 365D) are hovering near zero - the market is neither overheated nor oversold, essentially balanced.
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 18, 2025
BTC price sits just above STH Realized Price, setting the stage for 1–2 weeks of consolidation with a potential push to ATH.
Uptober incoming 🌊 pic.twitter.com/hFaycSGxRy
At the same time, Bitcoin is trading just above the realized price of short-term holders. Adler Jr. expects this could lead to a brief consolidation of one to two weeks, followed by renewed upward momentum.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of $2.8 billion since September 9, according to SoSoValue — a trend widely viewed as another strong tailwind for the market. “There’s a 70% chance we’ll see a gradual upward move in the next two weeks,” Adler Jr. concluded