Hayes’ blueprint revolves around “Buffalo Bill Bessent,” his stand-in for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The plan: use personnel changes to shape the Fed’s two power centers—the Board of Governors (FBOG) and the FOMC—and then run a WWII-style yield-curve control (YCC). Back then, the Fed capped short-term Treasuries at ~0.675% and long bonds at 2.5% to keep war financing cheap. Translated to today, Hayes imagines a steep curve, easy credit for small and mid-sized firms, and an openly activist central bank funding a new industrial policy. That mix—more liquidity, a softer dollar—tends to be Bitcoin-positive.

Mechanically, the Board matters first. With a simple majority (four of seven seats), the FBOG can cut the interest paid on bank reserves (IORB) and lean on the system via appointment power over regional Fed presidents. Lower IORB also creates arbitrage pressure that nudges policy looser. The bigger lever is the FOMC, which controls the money spigot through the SOMA portfolio (plain-vanilla QE). Hayes argues a friendly Board could slow-walk or block hawkish regional chiefs and tilt the FOMC dovish over time.

If that regime takes hold, Hayes estimates roughly $15 trillion of fresh liquidity by 2028—half from the Fed, half from bank credit. In his “max liquidity” model, Bitcoin could, in theory, climb to $3.4 million by 2028. He’s not blindly married to the number; the point is direction. In his words: no, he doesn’t believe $3.4M is guaranteed—but he’s confident BTC ends up far above today’s ~$115k if the White House truly leans into trillion-dollar money printing.

Beyond the headline target, the thesis is a reminder of how tightly geopolitics, central banking, and crypto now intertwine. In a YCC-plus-fiscal-expansion world, Bitcoin isn’t just an inflation hedge; it becomes a political statement—opt-out money against a highly interventionist Fed. The risk, of course, is the flip side of the bull case: a deeply politicized central bank, distorted price signals, and bigger boom-bust swings. But if Trump really does refit the Fed and fires up YCC, Hayes thinks Bitcoin will be one of the clearest beneficiaries.