Hayes says the reasons are clear: fresh U.S. tariffs from Trump, weak labor data, sluggish credit growth, and rising global risks. The timing couldn’t have been sharper—Bitcoin slipped to $113,000 right after the tariff news, lining up with his short-term bearish thesis. He’s even warning ETH could revisit the $3,000 zone.
But this isn’t Hayes turning into a long-term bear. In fact, he’s doubling down on his year-end target of $250,000 for Bitcoin. To him, the summer lull and August’s weak seasonals are just a setup for the next big rally. His playbook is defensive: stack stables, wait out the turbulence, and be ready to strike when momentum flips.
Y? US Tariff bill coming due in 3q … at least the mrkt believes that after NFP print. No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal gdp. So $BTC tests $100k, $ETH tests $3k. Come see my @WebX_Asia Tokyo keynote Aug 25 for more info. Back to the beach. https://t.co/zuHlwgQKC7
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 2, 2025
In his own words: no economy is creating enough credit to boost growth, so BTC will likely test $100k soon. But once liquidity returns, Hayes believes Bitcoin will rocket to new highs. For now, he’s happy sitting on the sidelines, letting the market shake out before diving back in.