According to CryptoQuant, most of the additional demand generated during the current cycle has already been absorbed. This significantly increases the risk of further downside. Analysts identify the $70,000 level as the nearest major support zone, while also allowing for a deeper correction toward $56,000.
CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno уточняет that a decline toward $70,000 could unfold within the next three to six months. He views the $56,000 level as a longer-term scenario, potentially materializing in the second half of 2026. Moreno argues that the current bear market effectively began in mid-November, triggered by the largest liquidation event in crypto market history, recorded on October 10.
Additional signs of weakness are visible in the performance of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. During the fourth quarter of 2025, outflows dominated this segment, with total ETF holdings declining by approximately 24,000 BTC. At the same time, the growth rate of wallet addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has slowed and fallen below its long-term trend — a pattern that closely resembles conditions seen ahead of the 2022 bear market.
Caution signals are also emerging from the derivatives market. Average funding rates on perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2023, indicating a reduced appetite for risk among traders. In addition, Bitcoin is currently trading below its 365-day moving average, a level that has historically served as a dividing line between bull and bear market phases.