According to data from the analytics company CryptoQuant, the so-called Bull Score currently stands at only 10 out of 100 points, signaling that the market environment remains strongly bearish. As a result, CryptoQuant analysts interpret the recent price increase as merely a short-term rebound within a broader downward trend.
Selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders
During the short-term price rally, selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders increased. The strongest selling activity appeared near key resistance levels. The subsequent decline pushed BTC back toward the $70,000 area.
Analysts are now closely watching the $70,000–$71,000 zone. If the price breaks below this support level decisively, it could trigger a wave of liquidations across the market.
Macroeconomic data in focus
In addition to technical factors, macroeconomic developments are increasingly influencing the market. The decline last weekend occurred amid geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. Reports of blocked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz increased risk aversion among investors.
After the United States announced measures to secure maritime trade routes, both cryptocurrency and stock markets partially stabilized. At the same time, yields on US government bonds have risen significantly. This suggests investors are once again pricing in more persistent inflation and reducing expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Key US data for the crypto market
Particular attention today will be focused on the US labor market report scheduled for 14:30 (CET). The release of the Nonfarm Payrolls data could provide new signals about the state of the economy and trigger additional volatility in financial markets.
If the figures fall below expectations, the Federal Reserve may once again focus on the risk of weakening labor market conditions and consider additional measures to support the economy. At the same time, stronger-than-expected data could support financial markets and strengthen investor confidence.
