BTC Supply on Exchanges Hits Six-Year Low
Despite the recent correction in Bitcoin price, long-term holders (“hodlers”) are steadily withdrawing BTC from centralized exchanges. According to CryptoQuant, the total amount of bitcoin held across major venues like Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitpanda has fallen to just 2.37 million BTC—down from over 3 million a year ago. This represents just 12% of circulating supply available for spot trading, a structural squeeze that historically sets the stage for upside volatility. According to data from Cryptoquant, the amount of Bitcoin held by exchanges such as Kraken , Coinbase is at its lowest level since 2018. At the time of writing, 2.37 million BTC are currently held in the wallets of brokers and exchanges
CryptoQuant analysts note: “A persistent downtrend in exchange reserves signals growing BTC scarcity, often preceding bullish market movements. The market’s preference to accumulate and hold reduces liquid supply, reshaping demand/supply dynamics and priming for a potential price surge.”
Macro Weakness and Seasonality
On the macro front, recent U.S. economic data have weighed on crypto risk sentiment. The U.S. added only 14,000 jobs in June—its lowest monthly total since December 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Historically, August is Bitcoin’s weakest month, with a median price drop of roughly 7.5%. Leading analysts, including Arthur Hayes, see an elevated risk of a retest toward the $100,000 mark before the market regains its footing.
Fewer and fewer Bitcoins are available on the market | Source: CryptoQuantIs a Fed Pivot Around the Corner?
Yet the same economic softness could set up a bullish pivot. FedWatch data from the CME Group shows that a majority of market participants now expect the first rate cut in September. As lower U.S. rates historically fuel demand for risk assets like bitcoin, a Fed pivot could mark a significant tailwind for crypto markets.
Interest rates in the US could fall in just one month | Source: CME“The stage is set for an interest rate pivot that could arrive faster and more forcefully than Wall Street expects,” notes the Bitcoin Intelligence Report by 21st Capital. For bold investors, current levels could offer attractive entry points—especially if technical on-chain signals remain supportive. Notably, the MVRV ratio, a key indicator of BTC market cycles, remains far from overheated at 2.1 (historical tops above 3.7).
MVRV signals room for further upside. Source: CryptoQuantCorrection as Opportunity: Cycle Not Over Yet
Market strategists such as Javier Rodriguez-Alarcon, CIO at XBTO, remain constructive: “In a broader context, July ended as Bitcoin’s highest monthly close ever, despite the current correction. BTC remains well above short-term support ($110K–$117K), which indicates robust underlying demand.”
With supply on exchanges dwindling and macro catalysts aligning for a potential policy shift, August’s volatility could present rare buying opportunities ahead of the next major crypto uptrend.