Bitcoin Recovers Above $106K as Fed Holds Rate and Shutdown Ends

The cryptocurrency market found support after Democrats and Republicans in the US Senate reached a compromise agreement to end the government shutdown. This deal boosted risk appetite by restoring government funding through the end of January. However, the decision on extending expanded tax credits under the Affordable Care Act has yet to be voted on in December. The bill must still pass the House of Representatives and be signed by President Donald Trump, which will take time. Additional optimism came from Trump’s promise to provide at least $2,000 to each American (excluding high-income citizens) funded by tariff revenues — a measure that traders interpreted as potential capital inflows into the crypto market.

Nevertheless, analysts consider the current growth in digital assets to be fragile. Even after the shutdown ends, the government is unlikely to pass key crypto-related legislation before year-end, and new ETF approvals could face delays. Moreover, Trump’s “dividend” proposal is largely populist, as the president cannot unilaterally authorize such payments without congressional approval. Estimates show that US tariff revenues so far total around $120 billion, while Trump’s proposal would require about $300 billion in funding.

Thus, despite the BTC/USD pair’s partial recovery, overall sentiment remains cautious. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 29 (“fear”), while Bitcoin ETF balances have declined by $1.208 billion over the past week.

Support and Resistance Levels

The instrument is moving within a descending channel. If the price breaks above 109,375.00 (Murray level [5/8]), above the middle Bollinger Band, it may exit the range and head toward 115,625.00 (Murray level [5/8]), 121,875.00 (Murray level [7/8]), and 125,000.00 (Murray level [8/8]). However, a drop below 100,000.00 (Murray level [0/8]) would signal renewed downside momentum toward 93,750.00 (Murray level [–2/8], 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

Technical indicators confirm the bearish bias: Bollinger Bands are sloping downward, the MACD histogram remains in the negative zone, and the Stochastic is approaching the overbought area — suggesting a potential reversal.

Resistance levels: 109,375.00, 115,625.00, 121,875.00, 125,000.00.

Support levels: 100,000.00, 93,750.00.

Trading Scenarios and BTC/USD Forecast

Short positions may be opened below 100,000.00 with a target at 93,750.00 and a stop loss at 104,400.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 109,375.00 with targets at 115,625.00, 121,875.00, and 125,000.00, and a stop loss at 105,300.00.