BTC/USD pullback to 106,250: key levels & trade ideas (Weekly)

At the most recent FOMC meeting, the regulator, as expected, lowered the rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell later indicated that another rate cut in December — something investors had been counting on — was “not predetermined.” He noted growing consensus among officials that the Fed should pause for at least one meeting to assess the effects of earlier moves. This comment strengthened the U.S. dollar against alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea was, in most analysts’ view, less productive than hoped. Although some progress was achieved — Beijing pledged to ensure the supply of rare earth metals to the U.S. for a year and increase purchases of American agricultural goods, while Washington agreed to cut tariffs on Chinese exports by 10.0% — there were no major structural breakthroughs. The relationship between the two largest economies remains fragile, leaving room for renewed tensions ahead.

Against this backdrop, it’s no surprise that even with a minor weekend rebound, overall sentiment among crypto investors remains weak. The Fear & Greed Index stabilized at 37 (“fear”), while outflows from digital exchange-traded funds resumed — totaling 1.15 billion USD across Bitcoin ETFs in the past three sessions. Still, analysts note that top cryptocurrencies may soon find new support, partly thanks to ETF developments. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could not review new ETF filings. As a workaround, several investment firms have begun using a simplified registration process that automatically approves launches if regulators fail to respond within 20 days. As a result, the first four funds — Bitwise Solana Fund, Canary Capital Litecoin and HBAR Fund, and Grayscale Solana Trust — are likely to start trading this week, potentially supporting leading cryptocurrencies.

Support and Resistance Levels

The instrument is attempting to consolidate above the midline of the Bollinger Bands. However, a meaningful bullish reversal can only be confirmed if the price breaks above 112,500.00 (Murray level [4/8], Fibonacci 23.6% correction). A breakout would open the way toward 118,750.00 (Murray [6/8]) and 125,000.00 (Murray [8/8]). For bears, the key level remains 105,390.00 (Fibonacci 38.2%). A sustained move below it would likely trigger another decline toward 100,000.00 (Murray [0/8], Fibonacci 50.0%) and 96,875.00 (Murray [–1/8]).

Technical indicators are mixed: Bollinger Bands are turning downward, Stochastic is reversing upward from oversold territory, while MACD remains stable in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 112,500.00, 118,750.00, 125,000.00.
Support levels: 105,390.00, 100,000.00, 96,875.00.

BTC/USD Trading Scenarios and Outlook

Short positions may be considered below 105,390.00 with targets at 100,000.00 and 96,875.00, and a stop-loss at 109,400.00. Implementation horizon: 5–7 days.

Long positions could be opened above 112,500.00 with targets at 118,750.00 and 125,000.00, and a stop-loss at 109,300.00.