BTC/USD sinks to 93,750 as fear spikes and bearish pressure builds

First, investors are increasingly wary that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate-cut cycle at the December meeting. After the last gathering, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that a December cut is not guaranteed, and policymakers prefer to assess the economic impact of decisions already made. Since then, most comments from Fed officials have reinforced this cautious stance. Notably, even those who previously supported a dovish approach — such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins — now signal more restraint. As a result, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of another policy adjustment this year has dropped to 49.0%, supporting the US dollar and pressuring alternative assets.

Additionally, some analysts point to the beginning of a corrective phase, as large investors started locking in profits after the strong rally driven by the crypto-friendly administration of President Donald Trump. The Fear & Greed Index is deep in the “extreme fear” zone at 14, after briefly touching 10 over the weekend. Outflows from leading crypto ETFs also continue: Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.636 billion withdrawn over the past three sessions, reinforcing expectations of further downside pressure on BTC/USD in the medium term.

Support and Resistance Levels

The instrument is attempting to break out of the descending channel by pushing through its lower boundary. A firm move below 93,750.00 (Murray level [–1/8]) would open the way toward 87,500.00 (Murray level [–2/8], 61.8% Fibonacci correction) and 81,250.00 (Murray level [–2/8], H4). A breakout above 100,000.00 (Murray level [0/8], 50.0% Fibonacci correction) would allow the pair to resume growth toward 106,250.00 (Murray level [1/8]) and 112,500.00 (Murray level [2/8], 23.6% correction), though this scenario currently appears less likely.

Technical indicators confirm a bearish trend: Bollinger Bands are directed downward, MACD is expanding in the negative zone, and Stochastic may exit oversold territory, allowing for a minor upward correction, though its potential remains limited.

It is also worth noting that on the weekly chart, price has moved below the 50-period MA, which previously acted as dynamic support — increasing the likelihood of further declines.

Resistance levels: 100,000.00, 106,250.00, 112,500.00.
Support levels: 93,750.00, 87,500.00, 81,250.00.

Bitcoin Trading Scenarios and Outlook

Short positions are recommended below 93,750.00 with targets at 87,500.00 and 81,250.00 and a stop-loss at 98,200.00. Implementation horizon: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be considered above 100,000.00 with targets at 106,250.00 and 112,500.00 and a stop-loss at 95,200.00.