As the fourth week of June unfolds, markets will turn their attention to several key economic updates. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on the newest figures for US consumer sentiment. By Thursday, focus shifts to the government’s revised estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter, which will be released alongside the latest tally of initial jobless claims.
Friday closes the week with two closely watched indicators: the PCE core inflation reading for June and the University of Michigan’s final survey results on household inflation outlook. Adding to the week’s significance, a number of Federal Reserve policymakers are set to deliver remarks on monetary and interest rate policy. Meanwhile, on Wednesday evening, Nvidia is scheduled to post its quarterly earnings report after the bell, marking the final update from the group of “Magnificent Seven” tech giants.
Key Economic Data of the Week
On Tuesday, August 26, at 10:00 a.m. ET, the Conference Board (CB) will release the latest U.S. consumer confidence data for August. In the previous month, consumer sentiment improved slightly to 97.2, above analysts’ forecast of 95.9. For the current month, expectations point to a further increase to 98.0. A stronger-than-expected reading could support risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Conversely, weaker numbers could weigh on consumption and trigger profit-taking in equities and crypto.
On Thursday, August 28, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the second estimate of U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 will be released. The first estimate showed growth of 3.0%, above expectations of 2.5%. If the revised figure is higher, equity markets may extend gains, but expectations for a September rate cut could decline further. At the same time, initial jobless claims will be published. Last week’s figure was 235,000, higher than the forecast of 226,000. This week, analysts expect 220,000 new claims. A higher-than-expected result could be seen as another warning signal of labor market weakness, while a lower number could support equities and crypto prices.
Sustained strong US economic growth could further reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September. Recently, the probability of a rate cut dropped from 100 percent last week to 69 percent. If the latest estimate comes in below the initial projection, however, the Federal Reserve may be forced to act sooner. Stock and crypto markets are expected to react with volatility once the data is released.
On Friday, August 29, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the latest U.S. PCE core inflation data will be released. In the previous month, core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations. For July, analysts also expect +0.3%. If the number comes in higher, the likelihood of a September rate cut may decrease, pressuring risk assets in the seasonally weak months of August and September. If the reading is lower, markets could rebound, and crypto prices may benefit.
Later that day, at 10:00 a.m. ET, the University of Michigan will publish its final survey results on household inflation expectations for the next 12 months. The preliminary figure was 4.9%, well above the forecast of 4.4% and also above the most recent actual inflation rate of 2.9%. If confirmed or exceeded, equities and crypto may react negatively. If lower, the market response could be positive.