According to JPMorgan analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the stablecoin market surpassed $300 billion in 2025. The largest issuers accounted for most of the increase: USDT supply rose by roughly $48 billion, while USDC’s market capitalization grew by $34 billion. These two assets delivered the bulk of the liquidity inflows into the sector.
At the same time, the analysts stress that demand for stablecoins remains concentrated within crypto infrastructure. They are used as a settlement asset and collateral in derivatives trading, as well as across DeFi lending and borrowing protocols. Significant token balances are also held by venture funds and crypto-native companies as idle reserves.
Since the start of the year, derivatives crypto exchanges have accumulated about $20 billion in stablecoins. Rising perpetual futures activity continues to expand supply, while broader payment use, JPMorgan argues, does not automatically translate into higher market capitalization for the sector.
Trading Activity Remains the Key Growth Driver
The report emphasizes that token velocity—rather than the degree of payment adoption—is the decisive variable for market size. As stablecoins are used more for payments, they tend to circulate faster, reducing the need to hold large outstanding balances. For example, the annual velocity of USDT on Ethereum is estimated at around 50. Even if stablecoins processed roughly 5% of global cross-border payments, the market would require no more than about $200 billion in stablecoins.
Against this backdrop, JPMorgan forecasts the market could reach $500–600 billion by 2028. This estimate is materially below projections from Citi ($1.9 trillion) and Standard Chartered ($2 trillion). The bank’s analysts argue that crypto trading cycles—not payments-driven expansion—will shape the sector’s trajectory over the medium term.
The report also highlights the development of tokenized bank deposits. JPMorgan has already launched JPM Coin (JPMD) on the Base Layer 2 network for institutional clients. The token represents a digital form of U.S. dollar deposits and enables on-chain payments within a fully regulated environment.
Regulators generally favor non-transferable tokenized-deposit models to preserve the “singleness of money” and reduce liquidity risk. In the analysts’ view, such structures can serve as a safer alternative to stablecoins while also lowering concentration risks across the industry.
Banks and CBDCs as a Constraint on Market Expansion
JPMorgan also points to SWIFT’s blockchain payment experiments, which could reinforce the role of traditional banks in cross-border settlement. Initiatives like these may limit the spread of stablecoins in institutional markets.
Additional pressure comes from central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives, including the digital euro and digital yuan. These instruments are positioned as regulated alternatives to privately issued stablecoins for international and institutional payment use cases.
Overall, JPMorgan concludes that the stablecoin market is likely to develop in line with the broader crypto market rather than experience explosive growth. Expanding payment usage does not require a proportional increase in token supply, while bank-led solutions and CBDCs could further cap scaling. The analysts estimate that by 2028, stablecoin market capitalization will stabilize in a $500–600 billion range—well below the most optimistic forecasts.