Brent Crude Oil Analysis: Price Holds Above $64 amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Quotes are moving higher amid rising global market tensions following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose blocking sanctions against Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries. According to Reuters, Indian state-owned refineries have begun auditing their procurement records to ensure they are not sourcing crude directly from the sanctioned firms. Additionally, the previously announced meeting between the U.S. and Russian leaders in Budapest has been postponed indefinitely.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) report, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.980 million barrels after increasing by 3.524 million barrels the previous week. Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which was expected to show another increase, also indicated a decline of –0.916 million barrels.

Oil trading volumes have slightly increased: on Wednesday, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group Inc.) reported a relatively high level of 980,000 positions — well above early October’s average of 740,000.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the price is moving away from the support line of the descending channel with dynamic boundaries of 67.00–58.00, forming a new corrective wave.

Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal that is starting to weaken amid local correction: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line but are approaching it, while the AO histogram in the sell zone forms new corrective bars.

Support levels: 63.10, 60.00.

Resistance levels: 65.50, 69.00.

Trading Scenarios and Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

If the upward movement continues and the price consolidates above the 65.50 resistance level, long positions become relevant again with a target at 69.00. Stop loss — 64.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

If a reversal occurs and the price consolidates below the 63.10 support level, short positions become valid with a target at 60.00. Stop loss — 64.50.