Trading on CME Group — the world’s largest derivatives exchange — suffered a major outage today, halting activity across currencies, futures, commodities, Treasuries, and equities. Operations have not yet been fully restored.

Fed dovish expectations rising
The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has risen from 30% to 86%. Source: CME Group

CME representatives said the disruption — which began early during the Asian trading session — was caused by cooling-system failures at CyrusOne data centers. The last similar incident occurred in April 2014. Meanwhile, investors and forex traders also reacted to comments from President Donald Trump following a security incident near the White House, where an Afghan citizen opened fire, injuring two members of the US National Guard. Trump announced plans to halt migration from “third-world countries,” revoke federal benefits for non-citizens, and introduce deportation for any legal violations. Analysts warn that such policies could remove a large portion of the workforce from the US economy, potentially destabilizing it.

Eurozone

The euro is weakening against the yen, the US dollar, and the British pound.

Germany’s inflation data released today showed that CPI fell from 0.3% to –0.2% month-over-month in November and remained at 2.4% year-over-year, matching expectations. The harmonized index dropped from 0.3% to –0.5% month-over-month and from 2.3% to 2.6% year-over-year. These numbers signal cooling inflation, which could spread across the eurozone. Meanwhile, minutes from the latest ECB meeting showed policymakers opted not to adjust rates due to economic uncertainty, with some members advocating an end to the dovish cycle. The document reinforced expectations that borrowing costs will remain unchanged through year-end, with only limited chances for cuts next year.

United Kingdom

The British pound is weakening against the yen and the US dollar but strengthening versus the euro.

The focus today was on comments from Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene, who said the government’s plan to cut household electricity bills by £150 a year may help ease inflation expectations, though it is still too early to assess the impact. She added that BoE wage-growth research suggests salaries may rise about 3.5%, above the target level.

Japan

The Japanese yen is gaining against the euro, the pound, and the US dollar.

Markets focused on Tokyo’s inflation data — considered an early indicator for nationwide CPI. In November, CPI eased from 2.8% to 2.7% year-over-year, while the core index held at 2.8%. Both remain well above the Bank of Japan’s target. Companies continue passing rising costs onto consumers, especially in food products. Industrial production rose 2.4% in October (vs. 0.5% expected), and retail sales increased 1.7% (vs. 0.8% forecast). Overall, Japan’s economy remains stable despite global trade tensions, while persistent price pressure strengthens the case for policy tightening later this year.

Australia

The Australian dollar is strengthening against the euro, the pound, the yen, and the US dollar.

Today’s data showed mortgage lending growth holding at 0.6% in October, while private-sector credit accelerated from 0.6% to 0.7%. The trend supports the view that Australia’s economy remains resilient and attractive to investors, lowering the likelihood of an interest-rate move by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the coming months.

Oil

After several days of decline, oil prices have turned upward as the market stabilizes and investors assess the potential for progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Yesterday, Russian and Ukrainian representatives confirmed readiness to discuss the US peace plan. President Vladimir Putin said Washington’s proposals could serve as a foundation for a ceasefire agreement — boosting hopes for partial sanctions relief on Russia’s energy sector. Markets are also awaiting the outcome of today’s OPEC+ meeting, where, according to Reuters, producers may announce an extension of current voluntary production cuts through the first quarter of 2026.