Yesterday evening, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2025 average price forecast by 0.86%, from $67.22 to $67.80 per barrel. However, the risk of a correction in Q4 from $68.00 to $59.00 remains, given the recent OPEC+ deal under which eight member states agreed to phase out voluntary output cuts by October. For 2026, the EIA projects prices could fall to $51.00. Analysts warn that the expected weakness in late 2025 could prompt major producers to curb supply. According to the Financial Times, if oil prices dip below $60.00, U.S. energy companies may be unable to meet investment and dividend commitments. Research firm Wood Mackenzie forecasts that capital spending on hydrocarbon production will decline 4.3% this year to $341.9 billion — the first annual drop since 2020 — which could put additional pressure on U.S. output.

Meanwhile, API data showed fuel inventories rising from 0.622 million barrels to 1.250 million barrels. Later today at 16:30 (GMT+2), EIA will release its official storage data, with projections pointing to a swing from +2.415 million barrels to –1.900 million barrels, in line with government estimates.

Brent Crude Oil Forecast

On the daily chart, the asset is moving away from the support line of the descending “triangle” pattern with dynamic boundaries between $69.00 and $64.00.

Technical indicators maintain a sell signal, which could strengthen further: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) continues to print corrective bars in negative territory.

  • Resistance levels: 69.00, 72.60

  • Support levels: 65.40, 60.80

Trading Scenarios

  • Sell Stop: Short positions may be opened after a breakdown below 65.40 with a target at 60.80. Stop-loss at 67.00. Implementation: 7 days or more.

  • Buy Stop: Long positions may be considered after a breakout above 69.00 with a target at 72.60. Stop-loss at 68.00.

Brent Crude Oil

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 65.40

  • Take Profit: 60.80

  • Stop Loss: 67.00

  • Key Levels: 60.80, 65.40, 69.00, 72.60

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 69.00

  • Take Profit: 72.60

  • Stop Loss: 68.00

  • Key Levels: 60.80, 65.40, 69.00, 72.60