The fundamental outlook remains unchanged: the Republican administration under Donald Trump still aims to expand domestic energy production. According to The Washington Post, it plans to issue drilling licenses for six offshore areas along the California coast between 2027 and 2030, as well as explore development in the eastern Gulf of Mexico between 2029 and 2030. By 2031, more than twenty leasing deals are expected in Alaska, including parts of the Arctic Ocean roughly 300 kilometers off the coast. The White House has already lifted previous restrictions on Arctic exploration, calling the region one of the nation’s most promising energy zones.
Tomorrow at 23:30 (GMT+2), the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly inventory report, expected to show another build following the previous increase of 6.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data recently indicated a rise of 5.202 million barrels, with forecasts now suggesting a more moderate gain of 1.8 million barrels.
As trading activity declines, oil contract volumes have tapered off. On Friday, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) reported one of the autumn lows at 824,000 transactions, signaling range-bound movement with no clear direction for several consecutive sessions.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, prices are pulling back from the upper boundary of a descending channel with dynamic limits between 65.00 and 58.00, forming a corrective wave.
Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line from below, while the AO histogram forms corrective bars in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 65.20, 68.90.
Support levels: 62.70, 59.90.
Trading Scenarios and Brent Crude Forecast
Short positions can be opened after a decline and consolidation below 62.70, targeting 59.90 with a stop loss at 63.50. Timeframe: 7 days or more.
Long positions can be opened after a breakout and consolidation above 65.20, targeting 68.90 with a stop loss at 64.20.