Brent Oil Prices Retreat After Hitting 2-Month Highs

Prices are under pressure from the resumption of crude exports from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkish ports, primarily Ceyhan, which could add 180,000–190,000 barrels per day to supply. In addition, at the upcoming meeting, OPEC+ members may approve a new production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day. Analysts note that the cartel is trying to restore its share of global sales, but current production capacity is still insufficient to fully meet previously agreed output volumes. According to estimates, OPEC countries are currently producing almost 500,000 barrels per day below target, which continues to limit supply and may help support prices.

Another factor is the reduced likelihood of further monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Most Fed officials have voiced support for a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, as inflation remains well above the 2.0% target while the economy grew by 3.8% in Q2.

Overall, the probability of a short-term downward correction remains.

Support and Resistance Levels

The instrument has returned to the mid-term sideways channel of 68.75–64.84 (Murray levels [4/8]–[–1/8]) and may decline toward 67.18 (Murray level [2/8], middle Bollinger band) and 65.62 (Murray level [0/8]). However, if 68.75 (Murray level [4/8]) is broken upward, growth toward 70.31 (Murray level [6/8]) and 71.09 (Murray level [7/8]) is possible.

Technical indicators give mixed signals: Bollinger Bands remain horizontal, the MACD histogram is rising in positive territory, while Stochastic is preparing to exit the overbought zone.

Resistance levels: 68.75, 70.31, 71.09.

Support levels: 67.18, 65.62.

Trading Scenarios and Brent Forecast

Short positions may be opened from 68.00 with targets at 67.18 and 65.62, and a stop-loss at 68.80. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 68.75 with targets at 70.31 and 71.09, and a stop-loss at 67.70.