A supportive backdrop comes from a physical gold shortage on Indian exchanges, which could impact delivery commitments under active futures contracts. The deficit stems from a sharp increase in raw material demand, while India’s gold imports in August totaled only 8.3 million ounces — down 44% year-over-year.
According to CME Group data, yesterday’s correction was not accompanied by large trading volumes: the total reached 775,000 positions, the second-highest level this fall, though analysts expected record highs given a daily price drop of more than $250. Investors opened 198,400 option contracts — nearly double the September median of 100,000 — reflecting preference for safer derivative exposure amid high gold prices and reduced futures activity due to volatility.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading well above the upper boundary of an ascending channel with dynamic limits between 3900.0 and 3500.0.
Technical indicators are weakening their buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram forms corrective bars in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 4260.0, 4580.0.
Support levels: 4000.0, 3700.0.
Trading Scenarios and XAU/USD Forecast
Long positions may be opened after a breakout and consolidation above 4260.0, targeting 4580.0. Stop-loss — 4100.0. Duration: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 4000.0, targeting 3700.0. Stop-loss — 4150.0.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 4260.5 |
| Take Profit | 4580.0 |
| Stop Loss | 4100.0 |
| Key Levels | 3700.0, 4000.0, 4260.0, 4580.0 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 3999.5 |
| Take Profit | 3700.0 |
| Stop Loss | 4150.0 |
| Key Levels | 3700.0, 4000.0, 4260.0, 4580.0 |