The gold price ended the week at $4,219.53 per ounce, gaining 1.35% and extending a strong rally that has kept the metal in a firm uptrend since late November. Despite elevated volatility, prices held their ground, with last week’s trading range spanning $4,074–$4,218, as investors renewed their interest in precious metals.
Morgan Stanley describes gold as a core asset within the commodities space and expects the supportive macroeconomic backdrop to remain in place through at least 2026.
Investors return to gold
The bank’s analysts point to a clear shift in investor behaviour during 2025. After four consecutive years of net outflows, gold-backed ETFs have moved back into accumulation, recording their largest increase in holdings since 2020.
According to Morgan Stanley, this trend could continue due to a combination of factors:
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declining interest rates across major economies,
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ongoing gold purchases by central banks,
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early signs of stabilisation in jewellery demand.
Additional support comes from growing interest in real assets, as investors increasingly use gold as a hedge against inflation risks and broader economic uncertainty.
Pullbacks seen as an opportunity
Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley views the recent pullback in the gold price as a buying opportunity rather than a signal of a trend reversal. The bank maintains its mid-2026 target of $4,500 per ounce.
Key risks highlighted by analysts include:
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periodic spikes in volatility that could temporarily redirect capital into other asset classes,
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a potential slowdown or reversal in central-bank reserve accumulation.
Silver also remains in focus
Alongside gold, Morgan Stanley is also constructive on silver. The bank expects the silver market to remain in deficit, a dynamic that could keep silver prices close to record highs.