Investor attention is also focused on the newly released annual OPEC+ statistical bulletin, which reveals that group export revenues fell 3.86% in 2024. Saudi Arabia saw the sharpest decline—down 9.71% to $223.37 billion—while Venezuela and Iran managed to increase receipts by 40.37% ($18.37 billion) and 13.73% ($46.78 billion) respectively. The cartel’s total physical crude exports dropped 3.55% to 19.01 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ accounting for 43.96% of global oil supply, only marginally below last year’s 44.81%.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project a pullback in Brent prices toward $60.00 per barrel by 2026, citing expectations of a 1.3 million barrels per day supply surplus.
Support and Resistance Levels
This week, Brent is attempting to recover from late-June losses and is trading near the key support area of 68.75–69.80 (Murray level [6/8], mid-Bollinger Band). A breakout here could open the way to 75.00 ([8/8]) and 78.12 ([+1/8]). The pivotal level for bears remains 65.62 ([5/8]); a sustained move below would likely target 62.50 ([4/8], lower Bollinger Band), 59.38 ([3/8]), and 56.25 ([2/8]).
Technical signals are mixed: Bollinger Bands are pointing upward, but the MACD histogram is about to turn negative, and Stochastic has entered the overbought zone—hinting at a possible downward reversal.
- Resistance: 69.80, 71.00, 78.12
- Support: 65.62, 62.50, 59.38, 56.25
Trading Scenarios
Short positions: Sell below 65.62 targeting 62.50, 59.38, 56.25 with stop-loss at 67.50. Horizon: 5–7 days.
Long positions: Buy above 69.80 targeting 71.00, 78.12 with stop-loss at 66.30.
Key Levels
- 56.25, 59.38, 62.50, 65.62, 69.80, 71.00, 78.12