Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed that European authorities consider raising trade tariffs on India and China to 100% in an effort to curb their purchases of Russian energy. Analysts at LSEG believe that an expansion of sanctions could restrict Russian exports, reduce supply, and push oil prices higher. Meanwhile, the September 10 Israeli strike on Hamas leadership in Doha added short-term volatility to the market. Still, the broader concern remains the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East: if the conflict disrupts logistics in the Strait of Hormuz, risk premiums could rise by $15–25 per barrel.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed fuel inventories climbing from 0.622 million barrels to 1.250 million, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a build from 2.415 million barrels to 3.939 million — signaling either mild oversupply or delays in demand absorption. Trading volumes in crude futures also increased to 905,000 contracts, compared with an August median of 650,000–700,000.

WTI crude oil

Support and Oil Price Forecast

On the daily chart, the instrument is moving away from the resistance line of a “triangle” pattern with dynamic boundaries at 64.50–61.00.

Technical indicators continue to flash bearish signals with a potential for reversal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in negative territory.

  • Resistance: 64.50, 67.80

  • Support: 61.70, 57.00

Trading Scenarios

  • Sell Stop: Short positions may be opened after a breakdown below 61.70 with a target of 57.00. Stop-loss at 63.00. Implementation horizon: 7+ days.

  • Buy Stop (Alternative): Long positions may be considered after a breakout above 64.50 with a target of 67.80. Stop-loss at 63.50.

Scenario (Weekly)

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 61.70

  • Take Profit: 57.00

  • Stop Loss: 63.00

  • Key Levels: 57.00, 61.70, 64.50, 67.80

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 64.50

  • Take Profit: 67.80

  • Stop Loss: 63.50

  • Key Levels: 57.00, 61.70, 64.50, 67.80