WTI Crude Oil Holds Above $62 Amid Fed Rate Cuts and China Policy Signals

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The easing of monetary policy is expected to support GDP growth and strengthen the labor market, which in turn could boost energy consumption. As a result, further adjustments in borrowing costs may lend support to oil prices and prevent a break below 62.00. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 3.0%, citing the absence of inflationary pressure. However, in the long run, these measures could risk deflation, slowing China’s economy and curbing fuel demand, which would weigh on crude prices.

Separately, Iraq’s federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government reached an agreement with oil companies to resume crude exports through Turkey. Exports, halted since March 2023, may restart at around 230,000 barrels per day. On the global front, the market braces for rising supply and weaker demand amid rapid EV adoption, U.S. trade tariffs, and higher OPEC output.

At the same time, traders are watching the European Union’s review of stricter sanctions on Russian hydrocarbon exports. A refusal to adopt new measures could push oil higher, as Urals crude has traded at a $5–10 discount to Brent this year. Despite a sharp drop in Russian oil imports—from 29% of EU demand in 2021 to just 2% today—the remaining volumes still equal tens of millions of tons annually, requiring replacement with more expensive alternatives.

Support and Resistance Levels

The long-term trend remains bullish, though a correction from June to September pushed WTI toward 62.00 support. A rebound from this level would validate long positions targeting 65.50, 69.00, and July’s peak at 71.08. Conversely, a clean break lower could shift momentum toward 60.24.

In the medium term, the trend is bearish: price is holding above the September 5 low at 61.81. A breakdown here opens the way to the 60.10–59.48 zone. Otherwise, a corrective bounce toward resistance at 67.76–67.22 could create short opportunities targeting 64.79 and 61.81.

Resistance levels: 65.50, 68.97, 71.08.

Support levels: 62.00, 60.24, 56.00.

Trading Scenarios and WTI Oil Price Forecast

Long positions can be opened from 62.00 with a target at 65.50 and a stop loss at 60.59. Timeframe: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be considered below 60.24 with a target at 56.00 and a stop loss at 62.00.