Separately, markets are watching the outcome of today’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin aimed at a diplomatic settlement of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. A breakthrough could see some export sanctions lifted, reducing the risk of disruptions to Russian oil supplies that have weighed on the market in recent years. At the same time, the U.S. has signaled potential secondary sanctions on key buyers—particularly China and India—if Moscow fails to take concrete steps toward ending hostilities. Investors were also unnerved by U.S. Vice President J. D. Vance’s remarks on Fox News that President Trump is considering tariffs on purchases of Russian energy. A similar measure was previously applied to India, where the tariff has already been adjusted to 25.0%. According to the State Bank of India, abandoning Russian barrels could increase India’s energy import bill by $9.0 billion in FY2026 and by $11.7 billion in FY2027. Analysts note the trend began in 2022 when Russian oil traded at a significant discount: Russia’s share of India’s total imports rose from 1.7% in FY2020 to 35.1% by 2025.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, price has left the ascending channel bounded by 71.00–64.00 and is now forming a new downswing.

Technical indicators maintain a fresh sell signal from last week: the fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator sit below the signal line and continue to widen, while the Awesome Oscillator histogram prints lower bars below the zero line.

  • Support levels: 61.30, 57.60.
  • Resistance levels: 64.80, 69.80.

Trading scenarios

Short positions are preferable after a firm break below 61.30 with a target at 57.60. Stop-loss — 63.00. Implementation horizon: 7 days or more.

Long positions are preferable after a firm break above 64.80 with a target at 69.80. Stop-loss — 62.00.

WTI Crude Oil

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry: 61.30
  • Take Profit: 57.60
  • Stop Loss: 63.00
  • Key levels: 57.60, 61.30, 64.80, 69.80

Alternative scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry: 64.80
  • Take Profit: 69.80
  • Stop Loss: 62.00
  • Key levels: 57.60, 61.30, 64.80, 69.80