If the negotiations are successful, the White House may lift some sanctions on the banking sector and energy exports, likely triggering a short-term drop in oil prices toward 62.25 and 60.25. If talks fail, prices could rally toward 66.00 and 69.85 on expectations of secondary sanctions that could disrupt fuel supply chains, reshaping the market and driving prices higher.

The market remains in a corrective phase. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions in WTI crude declined from 156,000 to 141,800 last week. Producer positions also show a decrease in core categories — a hallmark of a correction. Bullish positions totaled 440,074 contracts versus 383,803 on the bearish side. Buyers closed 9,943 contracts last week, while sellers added 6,643, signaling only a modest rebalance.

From a long-term perspective, the broader trend is still upward: May–June saw strong bullish momentum, but a pullback began in late June, with prices breaking support at 66.00 and testing the 64.50 trendline. A confirmed break below 64.50 would shift the trend bearish toward 60.25. Holding above this level would keep the bullish scenario toward 69.85 in play. Prices are trading below both the EMA (21) and EMA (190), signaling short- and long-term downtrends, while RSI remains neutral — allowing for both buy and sell setups.

Medium-Term Trend

The medium-term bias remains bearish. Last week, WTI fell to 65.10 from resistance at 71.35–70.81, broke through the 66.30–65.70 zone, and moved toward 60.10–59.48. A corrective rally could retest resistance at 69.08–68.54, from which short positions targeting 66.10 and 63.13 would become relevant.

A reversal to a bullish trend targeting 74.49–73.95 would require a sustained breakout above 69.08.

WTI crude oil prices

Support and Resistance Levels

  • Resistance: 69.85, 76.30, 80.50

  • Support: 64.50, 60.25

Trading Scenarios

    • Entry: 64.55

    • Take Profit: 69.85

    • Stop Loss: 62.20

    • Timeframe: 9–12 days

      Primary Scenario – Buy Stop:

    • Entry: 62.20

    • Take Profit: 58.00

    • Stop Loss: 64.20

      Alternative Scenario – Sell Stop:

Key Levels: 60.25, 64.50, 69.85, 76.30, 80.50