According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets now price in over a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, while about 8% of analysts see room for a larger 50-bp adjustment. Yesterday’s macroeconomic data strengthened the case for easing: annual PPI slowed from 3.1% to 2.6% (vs. 3.3% expected), while the monthly reading fell –0.1% after a 0.7% gain.

CME Group FedWatch Tool
CME Group FedWatch Tool. Screenshot September 11, 2025

Core PPI excluding food and energy also eased, from 3.4% to 2.8% y/y (vs. 3.5% forecast). Later today at 14:30 (GMT+2), U.S. CPI data will be released, with consensus pointing to an acceleration — though there is a strong chance results again fall short of expectations. Adding to the dovish case, revised U.S. Labor Department data showed that between March 2024 and March 2025, the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, signaling deeper labor market cooling. On Friday at 16:00 (GMT+2), traders will also watch Michigan University’s inflation expectations and consumer sentiment index.

The CFTC report confirms heightened speculative activity in gold futures. Net long positions climbed to 249.5K from 214.3K the previous week, with real-money longs at 201.8K versus 32.9K shorts. Buyers added 20.4K contracts, while sellers trimmed 318, signaling persistent bullish momentum. Since the start of 2025, gold has gained 38.5%, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, strong central bank demand, and global uncertainty. Peter Grant, VP and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, believes gold could climb toward $3,700–3,730, with short-term pullbacks serving as buying opportunities.

Support and Resistance Levels

  • Resistance: 3674.79, 3720.00, 3760.00, 3800.00

  • Support: 3620.31, 3575.00, 3550.00, 3525.00

Trading Scenarios

  • Sell Stop: Short positions below 3620.31, targeting 3525.00. Stop-loss at 3674.79. Horizon: 2–3 days.

  • Buy Stop (Alternative): Long positions above 3674.80, targeting 3760.00. Stop-loss at 3620.31.

Scenario (Intraday)

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 3620.30

  • Take Profit: 3525.00

  • Stop Loss: 3674.79

  • Key Levels: 3620.31, 3550.00, 3575.00, 3620.31, 3674.79, 3720.00, 3760.00, 3800.00

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 3674.80

  • Take Profit: 3760.00

  • Stop Loss: 3620.31

  • Key Levels: 3620.31, 3550.00, 3575.00, 3620.31, 3674.79, 3720.00, 3760.00, 3800.00