AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Aussie Under Pressure Ahead of RBA Speech and China Data

Currently, the regulator maintains a cautious stance: at the end of September, officials unanimously decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at a relatively high level of 3.60%, which is, however, the lowest since April 2023. The decision was driven by rising global risks related to trade and inflation. The RBA noted that uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs has recently eased, but the situation remains unstable. This is particularly evident amid growing tensions in U.S.–China trade relations: U.S. President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods effective November 1, later increasing them to 150%. According to the White House, the new measures are an appropriate response to China’s export restrictions on rare earth metals, as China remains the main supplier, accounting for nearly 70% of global exports.

Meanwhile, Monday’s macroeconomic data from China turned out to be fairly optimistic: GDP in Q3 rose by 1.1% versus the forecast of 0.8%, while annual growth slowed from 5.2% to 4.8%. Industrial production volumes in September increased from 5.2% to 6.5%, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 5.0%.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show moderate decline: the price range is narrowing from above but remains sufficiently wide for the current level of market activity. MACD has turned upward, forming a weak buy signal (the histogram is positioned above the signal line). Stochastic maintains confident growth but is now near overbought territory, indicating risks of a short-term correction for the Australian dollar.

Resistance levels: 0.6530, 0.6572, 0.6600, 0.6628.

Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6462, 0.6438, 0.6406.

Trading Scenarios and AUD/USD Forecast

Long positions may be opened after a confident breakout above 0.6530 with a target at 0.6600. Stop-loss — 0.6500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

A return to bearish momentum followed by a decline below 0.6462 could signal new short positions targeting 0.6406. Stop-loss — 0.6500.