AUD/USD Tests 0.6530 Resistance Ahead of Key Inflation and Fed Decisions

On Wednesday at 02:30 (GMT+2), Australia will release its Q3 inflation data. Forecasts suggest that the annual consumer price index will accelerate sharply from 2.1% to 3.0%, and the quarterly rate will rise from 0.7% to 1.1%. Such results could strengthen expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will refrain from further monetary easing in the near term.

Later that day, at 20:00 (GMT+2), the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting will be announced. Analysts are almost certain that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Moreover, a deeper reduction remains possible, given the inflation data released late last week: the U.S. core CPI slowed from 3.1% to 3.0% year-over-year and from 0.3% to 0.2% month-over-month, while the broader annual figure increased slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%, below the forecast of 3.1%.

Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI for October fell from 51.4 to 49.7 points, while the services index rose from 52.4 to 53.1, bringing the composite index up from 52.4 to 52.6. In the U.S., similar indicators showed growth: the manufacturing PMI increased from 52.0 to 52.2, and the services PMI from 54.2 to 55.2.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are turning sideways, with the price range narrowing — a sign of mixed sentiment in the very short term. The MACD is rising and maintains a solid buy signal (its histogram remains above the signal line). The Stochastic indicator shows similar behavior but is near overbought territory, signaling potential short-term correction risks for the Australian dollar.

Resistance levels: 0.6556, 0.6572, 0.6600, 0.6628.

Support levels: 0.6530, 0.6514, 0.6500, 0.6480.

Trading Scenarios and AUD/USD Forecast

Long positions may be opened after a confident breakout above 0.6556 with a target of 0.6600. Stop-loss: 0.6530. Expected timeframe: 2–3 days.

A rebound from 0.6556 as resistance, followed by a drop below 0.6530, may serve as a signal to open new short positions targeting 0.6500. Stop-loss: 0.6545.