According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in Q2 private new capital expenditure accelerated from 1.7% to 0.2% YoY. Leading sectors remain information technology (+22.8%) and retail (+18.9%), while real estate showed a decline (–21.7%) due to worsening logistics and trade conditions. The forecast for late 2025 and early 2026 suggests a 12.0% increase in capital investment, confirming the economy’s recovery and new investor inflows into key industries. Considering this, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its August 11–12 meeting unanimously decided to cut the interest rate to 3.60%. Officials noted that maintaining full employment while ensuring inflation returns to the mid-point of the target band will likely require further monetary easing, though the pace will depend on incoming data. The RBA still has three meetings left this year: September 30, November 4, and December 9. Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac, ANZ, and NAB expect a 25bp cut to 3.35% in November.

The US dollar is at 97.80 in the USDX as traders assess Fed officials’ comments, with CME FedWatch Tool showing an 85.2% probability of a 25bp cut in September. Confidence was reinforced by economic and labor data: GDP rose from –0.5% to 3.3% in Q2, beating 3.0% forecasts, while initial jobless claims dropped from 234K to 229K, cutting total continuing claims from 1.961M to 1.954M.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving away from the support line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6700–0.6430.

Technical indicators are slowing the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are pointing upwards, approaching the signal line, while the AO histogram has formed several rising bars in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6580, 0.6690.
Support levels: 0.6490, 0.6370.

Trading Scenarios

Long positions can be opened after a breakout and consolidation above 0.6580 with a target at 0.6690. Stop-loss — 0.6520. Implementation time: 7 days or more. This aligns with the AUD/USD weekly forecast and the overall outlook for the pair.

Short positions can be opened after a decline and consolidation below 0.6490 with a target at 0.6370. Stop-loss — 0.6560.

AUD/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry Point: 0.6580
  • Take Profit: 0.6690
  • Stop Loss: 0.6520
  • Key Levels: 0.6370, 0.6490, 0.6580, 0.6690

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry Point: 0.6490
  • Take Profit: 0.6370
  • Stop Loss: 0.6560
  • Key Levels: 0.6370, 0.6490, 0.6580, 0.6690