According to a report from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), in Q2 GDP fell from 0.7% to 0.1% QoQ and from 1.8% to 1.2% YoY. Officials noted that as total exports declined by 2.7%, more and more sectors showed negative dynamics, led by the chemical and pharmaceutical industries (–4.8%) and manufacturing (–2.4%), while minor growth was observed in transport (+0.1%), healthcare (+0.3%), and accommodation and food services (+1.5%). In addition, analysts accounted for the impact of US tariffs and revised their GDP growth forecast for 2026 down from 0.8% to 0.6%.

The US dollar is trading around 97.80 in the USDX, reacting neutrally to the news flow centered on the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit in federal court in Washington, seeking to block attempts to remove her while the case is under consideration. US President Donald Trump claimed he had “sufficient grounds” based on a request from FHFA head Bill Pulte to dismiss Cook for allegedly providing “false information on one or more mortgage loans.” Previously, the administration had suggested removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell over overspending on central office renovations. Meanwhile, the US economy rebounded from –0.5% to 3.3% in Q2 versus a forecast of 3.0%, while sales within GDP rose from –3.1% to 6.8% against 6.3% earlier.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the instrument is correcting while holding above the resistance line of the descending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.7970–0.7800.

Technical indicators maintain a weak sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line from top to bottom, while the AO histogram is below the zero line.

Resistance levels: 0.8090, 0.8310.
Support levels: 0.7970, 0.7780.

Trading Scenarios

Short positions can be opened after a decline and consolidation below 0.7970 with a target at 0.7780. Stop-loss — 0.8050. Implementation time: 7 days or more.

Long positions can be opened after a rise and consolidation above 0.8090 with a target at 0.8310. Stop-loss — around 0.8020.

USD/CHF

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry Point: 0.7970
  • Take Profit: 0.7780
  • Stop Loss: 0.8050
  • Key Levels: 0.7780, 0.7970, 0.8090, 0.8310

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry Point: 0.8090
  • Take Profit: 0.8310
  • Stop Loss: 0.8020
  • Key Levels: 0.7780, 0.7970, 0.8090, 0.8310