In July, manufacturing sales accelerated from 0.3% to 1.8%, beating the forecast of 0.1%, while wholesale trade increased from 0.7% to 1.3%. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), GDP data for the same period will be released, expected to adjust from 0.1% to 0.3% MoM and from 0.5% to 0.2% QoQ, supporting the national currency.

Additionally, the Canadian dollar is supported by WTI crude oil prices, which, after testing the support level of 62.34 in early August, reached resistance at 65.51, rising 3.1% in the last two weeks due to heightened geopolitical tensions and slow progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The long-term trend remains bearish: the pair failed to consolidate above resistance at 1.3860 and reached support at 1.3755, below which it is trying to consolidate today. If broken, the next target for sellers will be 1.3554. Otherwise, a correction to 1.3860 is expected, and consolidation above this level would signal a trend reversal to bullish, with a target of 1.4000. The price trades below EMA (21) and EMA (190), confirming both short- and long-term downtrends. The RSI (14) remains neutral, allowing for both buying and selling scenarios.

Within the medium-term uptrend, last week began a correction toward the 1.3714–1.3694 support area, from which long positions with targets of 1.3809, 1.3924, and the Zone 2 range (1.4079–1.4053) may be relevant. Otherwise, the trend could reverse downward toward 1.3510–1.3490.

Support and Resistance Levels

Resistance levels: 1.3860, 1.4000, 1.4163.
Support levels: 1.3755, 1.3554.

Trading Scenarios

Short positions can be opened below 1.3755 with a target of 1.3554 and a stop-loss at 1.3826. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Long positions can be opened above 1.3826 with a target of 1.4000 and a stop-loss at 1.3741.

USD/CAD Forecast

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry point: 1.3750
  • Take Profit: 1.3554
  • Stop Loss: 1.3826
  • Key Levels: 1.3554, 1.3755, 1.3860, 1.4000, 1.4163

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry point: 1.3830
  • Take Profit: 1.4000
  • Stop Loss: 1.3741
  • Key Levels: 1.3554, 1.3755, 1.3860, 1.4000, 1.4163