After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday speech, where he acknowledged the possibility of cautiously adjusting monetary policy in case of labor market cooling, most analysts were almost certain about a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch Tool estimated the probability of such a move at 85.0%. However, several Fed officials, including Alberto Musalem and New York Fed President John Williams, emphasized that any decision would depend on incoming macroeconomic data, which could still point to accelerating inflation, suggesting rates may remain unchanged. Additionally, earlier this week President Donald Trump dismissed Fed Board member Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage approval manipulation, later openly stating that he would soon have a majority of allies on the board to push for a dovish decision. Cook plans to challenge the president’s actions in court, adding to investor caution.
From the Swiss National Bank (SNB), traders expect further rate cuts, possibly into negative territory at the September meeting, as annual consumer price inflation in July stood at 0.2% versus 0.1% previously, while the producer price index rose 0.9%.
The overall situation supports a potential medium-term rebound of the USD/CHF pair.
Support and Resistance Levels
The instrument remains within the sideways channel of 0.8118–0.7996 (Murray levels [5/8]–[3/8]). A breakout to the upside could push the pair toward 0.8301 (Murray level [8/8]) and 0.8423 (Murray level [+2/8]), while a breakdown below the lower boundary may lead to a decline toward 0.7812 (Murray level [0/8]).
Technical indicators remain mixed: Bollinger Bands are flat, MACD histogram is near the zero line with low volumes, and Stochastic is near the oversold zone, potentially ready to turn upward.
Resistance levels: 0.8118, 0.8301, 0.8423.
Support levels: 0.7996, 0.7812.
Trading Scenarios Forecast
Long positions may be opened above 0.8118, targeting 0.8301 and 0.8423, with a stop-loss at 0.8010. Implementation horizon: 5–7 days.
Short positions may be opened below 0.7996, targeting 0.7812, with a stop-loss at 0.8100.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly Forecast
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry Point: 0.8120
Take Profit: 0.8301, 0.8423
Stop Loss: 0.8010
Key Levels: 0.7812, 0.7996, 0.8118, 0.8301, 0.8423
Alternative Scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry Point: 0.7995
Take Profit: 0.7812
Stop Loss: 0.8100
Key Levels: 0.7812, 0.7996, 0.8118, 0.8301, 0.8423