United States

Preliminary GDP data for Q2 showed the economy growing 3.3% versus the forecast of 3.0%, confirming resilience to the ongoing trade crisis. Weekly jobless claims came in at 229,000 compared to 234,000 previously, while continuing claims fell slightly to 1.954 million, below expectations. Overall, steady GDP growth and a stable labor market increase the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September. Fed officials remain cautious: New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that any monetary policy adjustment will depend on incoming data.

Eurozone

The euro is strengthening against the U.S. dollar and the pound but showing mixed performance against the yen. ECB credibility was reinforced by comments from Olli Rehn, head of Finland’s central bank, who warned that if the Fed loses independence due to political pressure from President Donald Trump, global markets could face higher inflation and instability. He stressed that maintaining the ECB’s independence has been key to stabilizing inflation at 2.0%.

United Kingdom

The pound is gaining against the dollar but weakening versus the euro and yen. According to the August CBI report on the services sector, optimism has declined, while companies struggle with high costs and lower demand. Out of 396 surveyed firms, most expect weaker business activity in the next three months due to higher taxes and reduced investment. Meanwhile, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann confirmed that interest rates may remain steady for a prolonged period, but she is prepared to support a sharp cut if domestic demand slows significantly.

Japan

The yen is strengthening against the dollar and the pound but mixed against the euro. Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa highlighted ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, warning that they could hurt business and household sentiment. She confirmed the BoJ is ready to raise borrowing costs if economic conditions remain on track but stressed the importance of analyzing upcoming data, particularly the Tankan business survey, before making policy decisions.

Australia

The Australian dollar is strengthening against the dollar and the pound, while showing mixed performance against the euro and yen. Construction investment slowed sharply in Q2 (from 1.0% to 0.2%), while private capital expenditure grew only 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.8%. Analysts expect this weakness in construction to be offset by a recovery in manufacturing investment. The data influences short-term forex forecasts, with traders watching whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will move to cut rates in November.

Oil

Crude oil prices remain volatile, influenced by conflicting drivers. The latest EIA report showed U.S. crude inventories falling by 2.392 million barrels