EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Holds Above 1.1750 Amid USD Weakness

Employment data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) fell by 32,000, contrary to forecasts of an increase to 52,000, while the August reading was revised from 54,000 to –3,000. This raises the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate cut this year. However, this may be delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, which began on Wednesday and is expected to last at least two weeks. During this period, the Fed will not have access to macroeconomic data, making officials cautious about adjusting monetary policy until the shutdown ends.

In this environment, the euro remains more attractive for investment: the EU economy appears more stable, and inflation growth is still close to the 2.0% target despite signs of acceleration. It should be noted, however, that the single currency’s growth is limited by August unemployment data, which rose from 6.2% to 6.3%, the highest level since May. Nonetheless, the fundamentals for further strengthening of EUR/USD in the medium term remain intact.

Support and Resistance Levels

The instrument is trying to consolidate above the middle Bollinger Band line (1.1750) in order to continue rising towards 1.1918 (near yearly highs) and 1.2085 (Murray level [6/8], H4). However, a breakdown below 1.1597 (Murray level [7/8]) could lead to a decline towards 1.1475 (Murray level [6/8]) and 1.1353 (Murray level [5/8]).

Technical indicators confirm the bullish trend: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are turning upward, MACD histogram remains stable in the positive zone, and the weekly chart continues to form a long-term uptrend.

Resistance levels: 1.1750, 1.1918, 1.2085.

Support levels: 1.1597, 1.1475, 1.1353.

Trading Scenarios and EUR/USD Forecast

Long positions may be opened above 1.1750 with targets at 1.1918 and 1.2085 and a stop-loss at 1.1660. Implementation timeframe: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 1.1597 with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1353 and a stop-loss at 1.1680.