The US Department of Labor report could significantly shift sentiment ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where the rate-cutting cycle is expected to resume. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently warned of cooling economic growth and rising inflationary pressures. Thursday’s macro data also leaned dovish: the ADP private payrolls report showed just 54,000 new jobs in August, down from 106,000 previously and below forecasts of 65,000. Weekly jobless claims rose to 237,000 from 229,000, while continuing claims fell slightly to 1.94 million versus expectations of 1.96 million.

At the same time, the US dollar found support after ISM services PMI rose from 50.1 to 52.0, beating forecasts of 51.0.

The euro, however, came under pressure yesterday after eurozone retail sales slowed. Annual growth cooled from 3.5% to 2.2% (vs. 2.4% expected), while monthly sales fell 0.5% after a 0.6% increase (vs. –0.2% expected). Today, markets are focused on German factory orders: annual orders dropped 3.4% after a 1.7% rise previously, and monthly figures fell 2.9% after –0.2% (vs. 0.5% forecast).

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show sideways dynamics: the range remains wide enough for current trading activity. MACD is trying to turn upward but still signals selling (histogram below the signal line). Stochastic flattened after a sharp decline earlier this week, pointing to mixed short-term movement.

  • Resistance levels: 1.1700, 1.1754, 1.1800, 1.1850.

  • Support levels: 1.1629, 1.1556, 1.1500, 1.1450.

Trading Scenarios

  • Long positions may be opened after a confident breakout above 1.1700 with a target at 1.1800. Stop-loss at 1.1650. Implementation time: 2–3 days.

  • A return of bearish momentum with a breakdown below 1.1630 could signal new shorts toward 1.1556. Stop-loss at 1.1670.

EUR/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Intraday

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 1.1705

  • Take Profit: 1.1800

  • Stop Loss: 1.1650

  • Key Levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1556, 1.1629, 1.1700, 1.1754, 1.1800, 1.1850

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 1.1625

  • Take Profit: 1.1556

  • Stop Loss: 1.1670

  • Key Levels: 1.1450, 1.1500, 1.1556, 1.1629, 1.1700, 1.1754, 1.1800, 1.1850