Analysts expect the central bank to keep rates at 2.15%, ensuring control over relatively low inflation in the eurozone. In August, CPI rose to 2.1% y/y, slightly above forecasts, staying within the ECB’s 1–3% target band for 22 months. Such a stance supports the euro, keeping the forex trend tilted upward and close to the summer highs.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure after weak labor market data. Nonfarm payrolls fell sharply from 79K to 22K, well below estimates of 75K, confirming the slowdown in employment amid the Fed’s 4.50% rate policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 90% probability to a 25 bps cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting, with only 10% odds of a larger 50 bps move. For forex trading sentiment, this strengthens dovish expectations and limits dollar upside.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the long-term forex trend remains bullish. Last month the pair held within a 1.1742–1.1576 channel, and a breakout above 1.1770 could extend gains to 1.1900, and if consolidation follows, toward 1.2250.
Last week the medium-term trend turned bullish after breaking above the resistance zone 1.1690–1.1663, opening the way toward 1.1918–1.1895. In case of a correction to the 1.1527–1.1504 support, long positions remain attractive with upside targets at 1.1632 and 1.1759. A reversal would only be confirmed below 1.1504, shifting the forex outlook toward 1.1295–1.1272.
Resistance levels: 1.1770, 1.1900, 1.2250.
Support levels: 1.1576, 1.1400, 1.1200.
Trading Scenarios
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Buy Stop: above 1.1770, target 1.1900, stop-loss 1.1713, horizon 9–12 days.
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Sell Stop: below 1.1570, target 1.1400, stop-loss 1.1642.
This EUR/USD forecast confirms a bullish medium-term setup but warns traders about possible corrections before the ECB and Fed meetings.