EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1560 as Traders Await U.S. Shutdown Resolution

At 12:00 (GMT+2), Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will be released. Forecasts suggest the November reading could rise from 39.3 to 40.0 points, reflecting moderate improvement in business confidence and growth prospects. The Current Conditions Index is expected to edge higher from –80.0 to –77.5 points, which is unlikely to have a strong impact on the euro. Across the eurozone, sentiment is projected to climb from 22.7 to 23.5 points. Meanwhile, the latest Sentix Investor Confidence Index for November fell from –5.4 to –7.4 points, defying expectations for –3.9, highlighting persistent caution among market participants.

On Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2), traders will focus on Germany’s October consumer inflation data. Analysts expect no major price shifts — monthly inflation likely remains around 0.3%, while the annual rate should stay near 2.3%. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy direction appears largely predetermined. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that interest rates remain at an optimal level, though they could be adjusted if inflation accelerates or forecasts worsen. He emphasized the need for “prudence and caution,” despite a notable decline in uncertainty over the past six months, especially following the trade agreement with the U.S. Meanwhile, GDP growth in Q3 reached only 0.2%, making further ECB rate hikes unlikely and limiting the euro’s upside potential.

This outlook continues to constrain the EUR/USD pair, which remains in a narrow trading range around 1.1557.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are slightly narrowing at the top, showing moderate downward pressure but leaving room for short-term volatility. The MACD indicator continues to rise, maintaining a weak buy signal (the histogram remains above the signal line). The Stochastic Oscillator has approached the 80 mark and is turning sideways, signaling growing overbought risks for the euro in the very short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1576, 1.1600, 1.1647, 1.1700.

Support levels: 1.1541, 1.1500, 1.1450, 1.1400.

EUR/USD Trading Scenarios and Outlook

Short positions may be considered after a confident break below 1.1541, targeting 1.1450. Stop-loss — 1.1576. Estimated time frame: 2–3 days.

If bullish momentum continues and the price breaks above 1.1576, it could serve as a signal to open long positions with a target at 1.1647. Stop-loss — 1.1541.