Meanwhile, June housing permits rose 7.9% in Europe, signaling sector recovery. Optimism also followed US, EU, NATO, and Ukraine talks, where US President Donald Trump proposed a summit with Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, reducing geopolitical risks and favoring risk assets over safe havens.
Later this week, the FOMC minutes (Wednesday 20:00 GMT+2) will be key. Markets expect clarity on conditions for rate cuts. The September 17 Fed meeting has already priced an 83.1% chance of a 25bp cut, pressuring the dollar further.
Support and Resistance
The long-term trend remains bullish. After breaking 1.1575, EUR/USD is eyeing July’s high at 1.1800. A breakout above could open the path toward 1.1900 and 1.2250. Medium-term, the trend turned bearish in late July after dipping below 1.1557–1.1530, but the pair has since tested resistance around 1.1690–1.1663. A sustained move above 1.1690 would confirm an uptrend toward 1.1962–1.1935. Failure could bring a reversal toward 1.1540 and 1.1391.
Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1900, 1.2250
Support: 1.1575, 1.1400, 1.1200
Trading Scenarios
Primary scenario: Buy limit at 1.1575, target 1.1800, stop-loss 1.1505. Horizon: 9–12 days.
Alternative scenario: Sell stop at 1.1500, target 1.1400, stop-loss 1.1555.
Key Levels
1.1200, 1.1400, 1.1575, 1.1800, 1.1900, 1.2250