Recent eurozone business activity data exceeded previous figures. Germany’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.1 to 49.9, while the overall eurozone index reached 50.5 versus 49.8, moving into expansion territory for the first time in months. Composite PMIs improved as well: France at 49.8, Germany at 50.9, and the eurozone at 51.1 — the highest since early spring. New orders are increasing, and hiring continues for the sixth consecutive month. Analysts expect moderate economic growth in the eurozone on this basis.

At the same time, a joint EU-US statement confirmed that most EU goods, including cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, will face a 15% tariff when entering the US. France and Italy did not secure exemptions for wine and spirits. French exporters have already warned of serious difficulties for the industry.

In the UK, weak macro data is pressuring the pound. Manufacturing PMI in August fell to 47.3 from 48.0 (forecast: 48.2). Inflation has reaccelerated, with July CPI rising from 3.6% to 3.8%, matching the core index — nearly double the Bank of England’s target. This raises doubts about potential rate cuts later this year.

Against this backdrop, EUR/GBP is likely to maintain an upward trend, with the possibility of slowing momentum and shifting into sideways trading.

Support and resistance levels

The pair trades slightly above the ascending channel support line at 0.8600–0.8800, signaling further bullish potential.

Technical indicators point to renewed buying signals: EMA lines on the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line, and AO histogram bars are turning upward.

  • Support: 0.8600, 0.8510
  • Resistance: 0.8680, 0.8740

Trading scenarios

  • Buy scenario: A breakout above 0.8680 opens the way to 0.8740. Stop Loss — 0.8620. Horizon — 7 days or more.
  • Sell scenario: A drop below 0.8600 opens the way to 0.8510. Stop Loss — 0.8660.

EUR/GBP chart

Summary

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Main scenario: Buy Stop at 0.8680, TP 0.8740, SL 0.8620
  • Alternative: Sell Stop at 0.8600, TP 0.8510, SL 0.8660
  • Key levels: 0.8510, 0.8600, 0.8680, 0.8740