The September US labor market report was due today; however, because of the shutdown, investors cannot access the statistics, meaning the Fed will have to rely on already available data. According to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), private-sector employment changed by –32.0K versus a forecast of +50.0K, while the August figure was revised from +54.0K to +3.0K. As a result, the regulator may move toward more active measures despite its very cautious stance signaled after September’s 25 bp rate cut. Meanwhile, the euro area will release services activity data from S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) today at 10:00 (GMT+2): forecasts suggest Germany’s index will remain at 52.5, and the eurozone-wide reading at 51.4. At 11:00 (GMT+2), producer price data will hit the market, potentially clarifying prospects for further ECB easing: analysts expect the PPI to decline 0.4% y/y after a 0.2% increase previously, and –0.1% m/m after +0.4%.

GBP/USD

The pound is losing ground in GBP/USD during the morning session, extending the corrective impulse formed yesterday: investors are taking profit and trimming longs amid rising uncertainty linked to the federal government shutdown. Since the final US jobs report will not be published today, traders are focusing on JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls: August job openings rose from 7.208M to 7.227M versus 7.200M expected, while September ADP employment fell by 32.0K against a +50.0K forecast. Moreover, ADP revised August to –3.0K from an initially reported +54.0K. In any case, weaker labor data increases pressure on the Fed to continue easing. In the UK, investors are increasingly skeptical that the Bank of England will cut rates again this year, with inflation risks still elevated. Recall that the last rate reduction in August was not unanimous: four of nine MPC members opposed the move. Meanwhile, UK inflation continues to accelerate: retail prices rose from 0.9% to 1.4% in September, the highest since early 2024, while manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in five months amid weaker domestic demand and export orders. This week, investors also noted Q2 GDP dynamics, which grew 1.4%, 0.2% above the previous estimate.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows mixed trading in AUD/USD during the Asian session, hovering near 0.6600: participants are reluctant to initiate new positions amid uncertainty related to the US shutdown. The federal government halted operations on Wednesday after Congress failed to pass a budget for the new fiscal year. The Senate is expected to attempt another vote on a temporary funding extension on Friday—and if unsuccessful, on Monday—so the Department of Labor is unlikely to publish the September report today, with data collection broadly paused. Against this backdrop, traders will rely on this week’s ADP data showing a 32.0K employment decline versus a +50.0K forecast. On Thursday, they also assessed the Challenger report, which indicated a slowdown in announced corporate layoffs from 86.0K to 54.0K. Pressure on the Aussie intensified after weak trade data: exports fell 7.8% in August after +2.5% previously, while imports rose 3.2% after –2.4%, narrowing the trade surplus from AUD 6.61B to AUD 1.83B (vs. ~AUD 6.5B expected). Today, AUD softens further as S&P Global services PMI slipped to 52.4 in September from 55.1 (52.0 expected).

USD/JPY

The US dollar is advancing in USD/JPY in Asia, extending yesterday’s bullish impulse: the greenback is rebounding as the US Department of Labor will not publish the September jobs report today—data that might otherwise have pressured the currency given the earlier ADP miss. ADP showed a sharp 32.0K decline after –3.0K previously (originally +54.0K for August), versus a +50.0K forecast. Meanwhile, the yen faces headwinds from a jump in Japan’s unemployment rate in August to 2.6% from 2.3% (markets expected 2.4%). The jobs-to-applicants ratio also slipped from 1.22 to 1.20. On the positive side, Jibun Bank’s services PMI rose to 53.0 in September from 52.7. Even so, the unemployment uptick likely complicates further near-term tightening by the Bank of Japan. Investors are also awaiting the result of the Liberal Democratic Party leadership vote tomorrow, with the winner likely to become prime minister, replacing Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned earlier.

XAU/USD

XAU/USD is pulling back from record highs, testing 3850.00 to the downside: beyond technical factors, the gold correction is helped by the fact that the US will not release the final September jobs report today, as the federal government has been shut since October 1. Traders will watch the Senate vote on temporary government funding through November. There is a chance of at least a short-term compromise, despite numerous disagreements over the new fiscal-year budget. Liquidity is also thinner with Chinese markets closed for national holidays. Meanwhile, demand for the precious metal remains elevated amid deteriorating political conditions in the EU. Domestic political strains in France and Germany are compounded by tensions surrounding the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, continues to explore mechanisms to channel returns from frozen Russian assets, though some member states resist. Overall, the trend toward heightened geopolitical risk and militarization persists, weighing on business sentiment and risk appetite.