In particular, at 11:00 (GMT+2) today, October inflation data for Italy will be released, complementing the figures from France published on Friday: the annual consumer price index eased from 0.9% to 0.8%, while the monthly reading held at 0.1%. Meanwhile, eurozone GDP data for the third quarter showed an acceleration in the annual pace from 1.3% to 1.4% and a further 0.2% gain in quarterly terms. Inflation risks in the region remain low, and the economy, while growing slowly, continues to expand. In the next couple of quarters, growth could pick up somewhat as analysts expect a positive effect from higher defence spending and large-scale infrastructure modernisation programmes in Germany.
That said, industrial production figures still remain well below target levels and so far do not allow talk of a sustainable upward trend. In September, eurozone output in annual terms rose from 1.1% to just 1.2% versus a 2.1% forecast, while the seasonally adjusted indicator moved from –1.1% to 0.2% compared with expectations of 0.7%. Also on Friday, traders and Forex investors focused on employment data for the third quarter: the annual figure slowed from 0.6% to 0.5%, while quarterly growth held at 0.1%.
At the end of last week, key US statistics were not published, as the work of the federal government was disrupted by a record-long shutdown, which was eventually resolved after the signing of a temporary funding bill running through the end of January 2026. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market will receive the November Empire State Manufacturing Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: the indicator is expected to decline from 10.7 to 6.1 points. On Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2), the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting will be released and could shed more light on the prospects for further adjustments to borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve.
GBP/USD
The pound is losing ground in the GBP/USD pair, trading near 1.3150 and the local highs from 30 October, which were updated last week. Market activity remains relatively subdued as investors await new drivers. On Wednesday at 09:00 (GMT+2), the October inflation report is due and could prove decisive for the Bank of England’s next rate-cut decision. Forecasts suggest that core CPI in annual terms will ease from 3.5% to 3.4%, while the broader index will slow from 3.8% to 3.6%; on a monthly basis, zero growth is expected. In turn, the core producer price index excluding seasonal adjustments may edge down from 3.6%. Markets will also keep an eye on retail price data, where annual growth is projected to slow from 4.5% to 4.3%.
Cooling inflation would be a signal for the regulator to further soften monetary conditions, as the domestic economy remains under pressure. Recall that UK GDP in the third quarter slipped from 1.4% to 1.3% in annual terms and from 0.3% to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, while analysts had expected 1.4% and 0.2%, respectively. In addition, industrial production in September fell sharply: –2.5% year-on-year after –0.5% a month earlier (consensus –1.2%), and from 0.3% to –2.0% month-on-month. At the same time, US investors are waiting for labour-market data that could clarify the Federal Reserve’s next steps. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, around 56.0% of analysts currently expect the Fed to deliver another –25 basis-point cut in December, but weak employment figures could significantly increase this probability.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is trading mixed in the AUD/USD pair, holding close to last week’s closing levels. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the minutes from the November meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which will be published tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2). At that meeting, the regulator left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, citing persistent inflation risks.
For the third quarter, annual CPI accelerated to 3.24% after slowing from 2.40% to 2.09% in the previous period, while quarterly inflation rose to 1.34%. Even so, officials remain cautiously optimistic and do not rule out reaching the target range in the second half of 2026. The market also has November inflation expectations from the Melbourne Institute: the updated forecast points to a decline from 4.8% to 4.5% over the next 12 months. Labour-market data likewise argue in favour of stable consumer prices. The October employment report showed seasonally adjusted employment rising by 42.2 thousand after 12.8 thousand previously, versus expectations of 20.0 thousand. Full-time jobs increased by 55.3 thousand after 6.5 thousand in September, while part-time employment fell by 13.1 thousand after a 6.3-thousand increase a month earlier.
Markets also noted the drop in seasonally adjusted unemployment from 4.5% to 4.3%, compared with a forecast of 4.4%. Chinese data released on Friday were mixed: retail sales in October slowed from 3.0% to 2.9% (vs 2.7% expected), while annual industrial production growth decelerated from 6.5% to 4.9% against a 5.5% forecast. In the US, the publication of macroeconomic reports, particularly from the Department of Labor, is set to resume soon, which is putting pressure on the US dollar as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the end of this year continues to rise.
USD/JPY
The US dollar is trading in a mixed fashion against the yen in the USD/JPY pair as analysts digest fresh data from Japan. According to the latest release, GDP contracted by 0.4% in the third quarter after expanding by 0.6% previously, beating forecasts of –0.6%. Industrial production in September accelerated from 2.2% to 2.6% in monthly terms and from 3.4% to 3.8% year-on-year. On Wednesday at 01:50 (GMT+2), October trade figures are due. Exports are expected to slow from 4.2% to 1.1%, while imports are projected to fall from 3.3% to –0.7%, which would widen the trade deficit from –234.6 billion yen to –280.0 billion yen.
On Friday at 01:30 (GMT+2), the market will receive key inflation data. The national core CPI excluding fresh food is forecast to rise from 2.9% to 3.0% in October, signalling a potential need for further tightening by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, on Wednesday at 21:00 (GMT+2), investors will focus on the FOMC minutes, where the federal funds rate was cut by –25 basis points to 3.75%. Later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again cautioned markets against excessive expectations for additional easing. Much will depend on US labour-market data, which have not been published for about six weeks due to the government shutdown.
XAU/USD
The XAU/USD pair is posting a moderate decline, extending the downward momentum from the end of last week’s trading: the instrument is testing the 4050.00 area for a downside breakout. Last Friday, gold lost around 2.0% in value, but by the close of the session, the bulls managed to recover part of the losses, pulling the price away from the local lows of 10 November. Pressure on the metal comes from relatively low expectations that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, about 52.1% of analysts expect the easing cycle to continue, but much will depend on the wave of macroeconomic data to be released in November. Earlier, most key reports were not published because the federal government was shut down following a budget standoff in Congress.
First and foremost, investors and Forex traders will watch labour-market figures, as they previously played a decisive role in the Fed’s decision to cut borrowing costs. The Bank of England is also weighing the option of maintaining a “dovish” stance amid elevated inflation, although its room for manoeuvre is much more limited due to a weak economy and downbeat forecasts. Geopolitical risks add further support to gold: recently, the US announced the launch of Operation “Southern Spear” in South America targeting drug cartels.