At the start of the week, forex investors will focus on a series of speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB), including its President Christine Lagarde. The issue of future interest rate dynamics is unlikely to become central, as the regulator left its key parameters unchanged following the February 5 meeting. The accompanying statement reaffirmed the forecast that consumer inflation will stabilize around the 2.0% target in the medium term and confirmed the resilience of the eurozone economy.
At the same time, Christine Lagarde pointed to persistent uncertainty in macroeconomic data and emphasized that the recent strengthening of the euro is not a decisive factor in assessing inflation prospects, given the potential volatility of indicators in the coming months. Meanwhile, the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve remains in focus for American investors. Fed officials, including Governor Lisa Cook, continue to highlight ongoing inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that tight monetary conditions will be maintained for longer.
Additional support for the US dollar came from strong business activity data, as the ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly posted its fastest growth since August 2022 in January, moving into expansion territory. However, labor market data confirmed signs of cooling: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported the creation of only 30.0 thousand new non-farm jobs, well below the average monthly gains seen at the end of 2025, while initial jobless claims for the week ending January 30 rose from 209.0 thousand to 231.0 thousand, significantly exceeding forecasts of 212.0 thousand. Meanwhile, data published on Friday showed that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 56.4 to 57.3 in February, beating expectations of 55.0 and supporting the US currency. Inflation expectations, however, were mixed: the one-year outlook was revised down by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5%, while the five-year forecast edged up from 3.3% to 3.4%, maintaining the risk of elevated inflation in the long term.
GBP/USD
The British pound is showing near-flat dynamics, consolidating near the local lows of January 23, updated late last week, and testing the 1.3600 level for a potential upside breakout as investors digest the outcome of the Bank of England meeting. On February 5, the regulator left the key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the tone of the accompanying statements and the distribution of votes within the Monetary Policy Committee highlighted significant internal divisions reflecting the current macroeconomic environment. Elevated inflation risks continue to clash with signs of slowing economic growth: the annual consumer price index stood at 3.4% in January, remaining the highest among G7 countries, although well below the peaks of 2022–2023, when it exceeded 6.0%.
According to the regulator’s forecasts, the impact of previous monetary tightening and lower energy prices should gradually slow inflation toward the 2.0% target later this year, creating conditions for a return to a more dovish stance. At the same time, incoming macroeconomic data point to mounting challenges in the real economy: GDP growth in the third quarter nearly stalled, while projections for 2026 remain cautious, indicating a rising risk of recession. The unemployment rate has climbed to a five-year high of 5.1%, and wage growth has slowed, further constraining consumer demand.
Meanwhile, the adoption of artificial intelligence technologies is becoming one of the key factors reshaping the sector, intensifying structural pressure on employment. On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), traders will focus on revised GDP data for the fourth quarter, with forecasts suggesting quarterly growth could be revised up from 0.1% to 0.2%. December industrial production data are also expected to reflect a sharp slowdown: monthly growth may fall from 1.1% to 0.0%, annual growth from 2.3% to –0.1%, and manufacturing output from 2.1% to –1.0%, potentially weighing on the pound.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is gaining against the US dollar during the Asian session, once again consolidating above the psychological 0.7020 level. The pair is currently trading close to its early February 2023 highs, while investors await new catalysts to guide price action. At present, market direction is shaped by a sharp reassessment of expectations, driven primarily by the decisive monetary stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) amid solid domestic economic conditions.
At its February 3 meeting, the RBA raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first tightening since November 2023 and responding directly to troubling inflation data. In December, annual consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8%, while the core measure in the fourth quarter reached 3.4%, remaining above the target range of 2.0–3.0%. The labor market is also fueling inflationary pressure: employment rose by 65.2 thousand in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, increasing pressure on wage growth.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that current inflation dynamics are largely driven by strong domestic demand and described the rate adjustment as necessary under restrictive policy conditions. As a result, investors now estimate the probability of continued hawkish rhetoric at the May meeting at around 70.0%, with the peak rate by year-end potentially reaching 4.10–4.35%. The RBA’s stance stands in contrast to the approach of many global central banks, which are leaning toward monetary easing.
Markets are closely watching the US Federal Reserve, where policy easing could resume in the second half of the year, and it is possible that the new Fed chair, expected to take office in May, could reinforce a dovish trend. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is currently considered the most likely candidate. Australia’s economic backdrop supports the narrative of a “soft landing”: GDP growth reached 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, in line with RBA forecasts. Business activity in manufacturing and services stood at 52.3 and 56.3 points, respectively. Retail sales and the trade surplus have eased but remain in positive territory, confirming the overall constructive trend. A key external support factor for the Australian dollar is China’s economy, Australia’s main trading partner, where GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter and the trade surplus hit a record USD 1.19 trillion, driven by strong export growth.
USD/JPY
The US dollar is showing moderate weakness against the Japanese yen, testing the 156.65 level to the downside, as investors focus on January bank lending data, which showed a modest increase from 4.4% to 4.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, household income growth in December accelerated from 1.7% to 2.4%, falling short of the 3.0% forecast. The Eco Watchers current conditions index declined from 48.6 to 47.6, contrary to expectations of 49.1, while the outlook index slipped from 50.5 to 50.1.
Beyond macroeconomic data, market attention is centered on the results of elections to Japan’s lower house, held the previous day. The Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a majority with 316 out of 465 seats, granting the government broad scope to implement its economic agenda, including expansionary measures such as a two-year suspension of the consumption tax on food. Markets view these initiatives as a factor that could increase public debt, putting pressure on the yen and Japanese government bonds. Additional pressure came from Takaichi’s remarks highlighting the potential benefits of a weak yen for exporters, reinforcing expectations of a continued bearish trend for the currency. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan intends to maintain a tight monetary stance, but the arguments supporting it are weakening: January inflation data for Tokyo showed the headline CPI slowing to 1.5% year-on-year, the lowest since February 2022, while core inflation eased to 2.0%.
XAU/USD
Gold prices are posting moderate gains during the morning session on February 9, extending Friday’s bullish signal and testing the USD 5,030.0 per troy ounce level. The long-term uptrend is supported by fundamental factors, including strong central bank demand: in 2025, net purchases of gold reached 863.0 tonnes as part of reserve diversification efforts and to reduce reliance on the US dollar. This institutional demand provides a solid foundation for the market, limiting the depth of potential corrections. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty related to conflicts in the Middle East and escalating trade tensions continues to boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Forecasts from leading financial institutions for 2026 remain moderately optimistic. Goldman Sachs analysts raised their 12-month target to USD 5,400.0 per ounce, viewing gold as one of their preferred commodity assets. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects prices around USD 5,055.0 by year-end, with upside potential toward USD 5,400.0 supported by steady quarterly demand of approximately 585.0 tonnes. More conservative projections, such as those from Wells Fargo & Co., suggest a range of USD 4,500.0–4,700.0, factoring in the possibility of a deeper correction if global conditions normalize.
